Quote from EWP, pg 52 on triangles: "Many analysts are fooled into labeling a completed triangle way too early. Triangles take time and go sideways. Subwave C is typically a complex wave, though wave B or D can fulfill that role. Give triangles time to develop".
There is ample evidence that yet another zigzag occurred today (and not the breakout move) in a complex [d] wave. I knew when I saw it tracing it was not the breakout move. I even knew that the minimum requirement was that it would take out yesterday's high, even if only by less than a point. Mission accomplished. It took out yesterday's high and made a new [d] spot.
Now comes the true [e] wave. It can trace all the way down to 926.44 and take 2 days to do it if it so feels like it. A bearish move down will cause shorts to jump on it thinking this is now the trend (down). But alas all true [e] waves will turn hard against those that do not turn with it.
It could also turn early.
You have to read the intraday waves. Look for a 5-3-5 zig zag. The [B] wave is usually in the middle somewhere and if you can spot it, just count off 5 waves from that. Then buy the [e] spot. The worse thing that can happen is you get stopped out. Every other trader will buy the [e] spot except the stubborn bears. They will be part of the rocket fuel that helps propel the breakout move higher.
I suppose one reason triangles have a low failure rate is that the prices are hanging out up here for a reason: consolidation for a move higher. Then when the [e] wave comes, it gets bought. Its almost a self-fulfilling pattern in so many ways.
One last EWP quote about the personality of an e-wave: "E waves in triangles appear to most market observers to be the dramatic kickoff of a new downtrend after a top has been built. They are almost always accompanied by strongly supportive (bad) news."
So if you think the market is finally collapsing, it could just be this [e] wave and when it turns hard north, make sure your on the correct side of things. I feel foolish making predictions and then them not happening. However I believe, for good reason, via the wave structure and price action of recent days, that a breakout move above 950 is coming. But like I said, I respect the power of triangles until they prove otherwise. I respect this one too. The breakout move should be coming soon enough.
I am out of QID flat, I will respect the triangle. I may even buy the [e] if I have a free moment tomorrow at work.