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Sunday, June 14, 2009

Friday's Microsquiggles


UPDATE Monday 6:20 AM: Never mind this post. Its not a leading diagonal. Futures already made a new low.

EDIT 6pm: added some info and corrected paragraph spacing


I am using the e-minis for the microsquiggles because they give a bit more clarity perhaps on the situation.

Kenny shows a nice double three possibility for wave [ii]. The only thing about a double three is that it was a sharp zig zag down from 956 peak and double three's are supposed to be generally a sideways correction. I do see a triangle though in the same area as he shows.

I do a see another possibility as the whole day's move being a leading diagonal in the subwave (i) position of Minute [iii] of C. And as you can see it is definitely a 3-3-3-3-3- pattern and not a 5-3-5-3-5 pattern. The book (Elliott Wave Principle ) was undecided about this form back in 1978 and for good reason. They reported examples of both.

This intraday squiggle pattern may be a supportive evidence of a 3-3-3-3-3 pattern leading diagonal. Perhaps the market DOES trace both depending on the situation. I like to think of it like this: The market *thinks* it should be going down so it traces A-B-C corrective patterns to the upside. Well lo and behold the correctives keep ending in higher highs and lower lows and result in a 5 wave move (overall 3-3-3-3-3 subwaves). Who knows. I think both patterns are probably valid. The only "rule" I would imagine is that its either a pure 3-3-3-3-3 or a 5-3-5-3-5. This seems to be the 3-3-3-3-3 variety.

It could also be that the previous move (for instance a sharp move down or a slow ending) down prior to a leading diagonal will determine which type traces. That is just speculation on my part. Perhaps a very sharp prior down move results in a 3-3-3-3-3 type. Maybe a less bearish prior move allows a 5-3-5-3-5 to develop.

Of course the market needs to *confirm* that the trend is up with a continuing move up on Monday and a lower low cannot be made here. So this post may be all for naught, we'll find out soon enough.
The 3rd possibility is that this is a just a complex corrective wave 2 back up of some sort after a 956 peak. Which means 956 will not be breached and after this correction back up peaks, it continues down in some fashion to a lower low. But this would be an odd corrective wave 2 so that is a lower probability.

5 comments:

  1. Do you have any thoughts for June opex?

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  2. Dan, you make thing so confuse...

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  3. yes, this is pretty confusing. S-O-S

    have you looked at the dollar Dan? made a low on June 3rd and looks ready for a wave 3 rally. can stocks rally with stronger dollar? i don't think so....?

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  4. EWF still has us in Wave 4 and here's why - we haven't exceeded the fork boundary.
    http://forkoholic.com/images/spxstillw40609.jpg

    ReplyDelete