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Monday, June 29, 2009

Lets try that NASDAQ Squiggle Chart Again


Over the weekend I speculated that the NASDAQ peaked in an ending diagonal move. I think I was on the right track but I simply had it labeled way too early. Thats a typical probelm with wave counts sometimes particularly with ending diagonals or leading diagonals. There is still solid evidence that its an ending diagonal. Lots of overlapping waves in the move up of the last few days.

If there is one more new high tomorrow that would be the ending diagonal high. I can see a count where today is the ending diagonal high so the jury is out. So I am agnostic.

It would make sense I guess that a corrective down move would come on Wednesday and Thursday, first days of the new quarter and right before vacation holidays. But the market never makes "sense" does it?


19 comments:

  1. Argh, thank you danerick, I just got an idea from your chart. Not so much personal interest for spx wave labes, but noticed one of my CAD pair have pattern which has occured before in your chart as wxy pattern !

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  2. It looks to me like one thing is for sure. This "whatever it is wave" IS a corrective wave from the impulse downtrend that paused in March. After this hodgepodge of "counter trend" waves settle down, the impulse downtrend will continue...

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  3. EWI Deja Vu
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1167696037&play=1

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  4. Great article from Prechter dated 6/19/09 regarding deflation and what to expect. There was also one today on zerohedge. I recommend everyone read these.

    http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/ewave/2009/0619.html

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  5. The $XII Institutional Holdings channel will hold.

    CHART

    More downside work ahead.

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  6. futures are slightly up.
    Time to put the shorts on with target at 914 ?
    what do you think ?

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  7. Short once it hits 930, study the chart

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  8. Interesting how the sub 5th wave ended right on 930 for a millisecond only to start A (or whatever it is) wave right away. It almost seems like market was looking at blog.

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  9. I initiated a short at 929 with a target of 915. Then will ride the B wave.

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  10. from Max Cherry, this is the count I'm following:
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=16&id=p06463116424&a=171619739&listNum=12

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  11. Ok, I reached my target and not getting greedy. I'll wait for the wave to finish whenever and then maybe try to get in on the B wave but it is probably better to take a short position again at the peak of B.

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  12. Hi Rick,

    what is your target for B?

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  13. Depends on the A wave but if it were to end here, B wave could go up to 928 more or less. And then C wave to 903.

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  14. I've decided to go long again at 915 btw..

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  15. Rick, nice move to cover the short at 915 and go long the other way. At what point you will close the 915 long position you take today?

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  16. Max if 956 turns out to be P2 top then I'll be stealing your count LOL!

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  17. Dan just posted the chart that gives you an idea of the retracement. Ideally, I would close my long at 928 more or less and then go short again. The target for C is about 25 points from the B peak. However, 920 could be as far as B could go so I am ready to abandon my position at any time to short.

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  18. Rick and Dan,

    Thanks for posting your outlooks. Very helpful.

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