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Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Michael Ashbaugh Technical Indicator

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/an-increasingly-balanced-bull-vs-bear-debate

A day late (its one of his free samples) but this guy always sums up the technical situation in a simple, straightforward way.

In a nutshell here are some key points he makes:

1) Since breaking above the 200DMA, the SPX has failed to have a 9 -1 up day. (90% up day is a "standard" and is one reason why Kenny called P2 earlier than most and why I too suspected P2 had started - because 2 of those 9-1 up days occurred early in P2) Its had 2 weeks to do so and failed.

2) If the bears manage a 9-1 down day (Monday was a 15-1 down day) while the S&P500 is below its 200 DMA (at 909) than that is technically very bearish.


He does make the point and recognizes that 908 - 914 area is a "key" spot for the bulls short term. If this is a "B" wave low in a final ABC move to peak, then this area must hold.

This also matches up perfectly with Kenny's support chart showing the same thing
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_goypolxEFd4/SjgeFttw7cI/AAAAAAAAA-I/3nsz3NVyJA0/s1600-h/SPX+Daily.png


We shall soon find out.

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