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Saturday, June 27, 2009

The NASDAQ Charts





The NASDAQ appears to have ended Friday in an ending diagonal move on the squiggle chart. Which likely means that the SPX also will not be heading up much further if it does and 922 may have been its corrective high.


One thing we can eliminate from the NASDAQ is that this isn't some second wave situation in a giant 5 wave move down setting up a "third of third" move. That count no longer works because the NASDAQ breached a new high as compared to its [b] wave rally last week.


So what is happening? I suspect that Friday was a Minor blue X wave peak and now the market is looking to trace out a Minor Y wave to find the red (X) wave orthodox low. It can take any form as part of a double three: flat, triangle or another 5-3-5 zigzag. Only the 5-3-5 zigzag suggest that the recent 1753 low will be taken out to the downside and it very well may be the pattern it traces.


Also why I think its a Blue X wave (which means the SPX and DOW also made blue Minor X wave peaks or will shortly) is because I am finding I am charting very small degree labels on my squiggle charts which I usually don't have to do on this P2 rally. So funny or not, somehow my gut tells me I should bump the degrees up one notch. Which leads us to an Minor X wave peak due to what looks like ending diagonal moves.

Once this next corrective Minor (Y) pattern plays out, its likely an red (X) wave orthodox low and the market will launch on a last zigzag up to new market highs in a giant triple zigzag to p2 peak.

5 comments:

  1. The end of day volume spike was probably due to the Russell index getting rebalanced...just my opinion. Keep up the good work!

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  2. Yes your probably right! Thanks!

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  3. We'll see if P2 peaked or will peak later this summer. As you point out a near term sell off to below 900 on the s&p is coming very soon and at this point I do not think the market can hold above the 850-880 mark (line in the sand as was 700 for P2)through August which would infer 1 of 3 is in play. The bounce later in the summer will most likely be 2 of 3 then the big 3 of 3 in late fall. Again, the all important 850-880 level in July/August timeframe is what I believe will tell the story here.

    Thanks for all your work. Much appreciated.

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  4. Mark,
    You think we break down under 900 in the next couple of weeks? I think we test 927 then retest 888 (which I think fails and we touch 875-880) all this week even though it's a shortened trading week. thoughts?

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  5. Aaron,
    Sounds about right at this point. if a H&S is forming then the neckline must be broken ~890, this supports your analysis. then a test to the middle of the head, max 940 which if fails then on to ~800 area in later July.

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