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Monday, June 15, 2009

Variations


I usually have 3-4 things going on in my head (wave patterns) at a moment's notice on any potential wave structure. Sometimes I try and convey all that is up in my little noggin but that can confuse the non Elliott Wavers if I throw every little potential up there.

What is showing so far is that the move from 956 has perhaps completed 3 waves so far. 3 wave structures can be considered ABC so until the market makes another move lower than today's low, the jury is out.

In a well constructed impulse structures (in either direction) a nice subwave structure can be seen and channel lines develop. The move down from 956, although harsh is not clearly defined in its subwave structure. Its not the cleanest pattern I ever saw. However what is obvious is that there are 3 clear bigger waves so far; 1, 2, and 3 (or ABC)

But what if the market opens lower tomorrow and starts to move lower in a 5 wave pattern that gets sluggish and has ending diagonal characteristics where waves 1 and 4 overlap in price range? This would be a bullish reversal pattern.

So thats how my mind thinks in this instance if the market would open lower tomorrow and keep heading down a bit. I'm looking for wave 5 bottoms and a potential bullish reversal pattern.
It would probably be more bearish overall if the market traced higher first tomorrow and then started to sell off after a more proper wave 4 peak. This would match up with a more traditional channeling pattern such as the one I showed in tonight's update:


Of course the market can always produce impulse extensions in its wave structure and throw your *expectations* off. However I don't think this is a good spot for that to happen since the subwaves do not suggest it.
If today's low holds tight, then your looking at an ABC 5-3-5 pattern from peak.

14 comments:

  1. Too bad, this approach is wrong.

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  2. If I was trying to trade the little squiggles it might be wrong (I'm not). But having overall count patterns as in a primary, alternate and second alternate is very much a part of what Elliott Waves is all about.

    You have a primary count and always be ready with another valid count should your primary fail. That is per EWI and Robert Prechter himself and in Elliott wave Principles.

    My primary count of a wave [i] high at 956 was obviously wrong. My secondary counts therefore must kick in.

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  3. Yup you have it......but ya dont have to play it here...just enjoy the game....let um manipulate it to death.......obtw great work

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  4. Will kenny reposition his hole, I mean dot?

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  5. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  6. Dan,

    If you are suggesting a 5-3-5 from the peak, wouldn't the ABC retrace all of E of the triangle? I don't think 2 can retrace 1, if it does it'll probably impuslive down?

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  7. You do great work, keep it up

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  8. 5 waves played out. Market is heading to 928

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  9. dream on. the charts are broken. all the financials are headed much lower. FAZ has been a nice ride the past 2 days and should easily hit 6.

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  10. I -think- V of 5 of 1 kicked in ~15 min. before the close. The bears are aiming to take it below the 200dma, IMO.

    But...a nice big 2 would be most welcome to unwind some calls.

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  11. Or... maybe this is happening a degree lower.

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  12. uh... v of 5 of 1. (the nomenclature tangles up in my head).

    fuzzier_joe

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  13. Looks like Big Ben will say some good things to lift the market up (2).

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