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Monday, June 22, 2009

The Very Bearish Count

The very bearish count is that the market is of course in the beginning stages of a P3 wave. In fact if this was the count, then after a dead cat bounce, a big move that slices through 875 will be coming very soon.

Technicals though don't favor this. But if it was P3, technicals can get trampled as we saw in P1.

However the market is kind of short term oversold. Bullishness has plunged and bearishness is back in vogue....That of course would be a perfect setup for a reversal higher somwhere along the way. However you need buyers of course.

14 comments:

  1. Nice work Dan, I'm looking to hedge my short positions at 888-889. Take a look at UNG, look like it's almost ready to POP.

    TD

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  2. nice work! time will tell.

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  3. The market tends to takes the most money from the most people (axiom). The traders who went long at the close might get opened up like "tomato cans" in the morning.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tomato_Can

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  4. Dan,

    Thanks very much for providing two options - Bullish and Bearish counts. Best to you!

    Richard

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  5. tough dady

    why do you say ung about to pop after 3 down days

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  6. Would like to see the 880 area hold, then a move to around 930 to form the right shoulder. But that would be too easy. Some people were looking for a short term bottom in this time frame, but the longer term oscillators are going to be pointing down after a day like this.

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  7. hey bebe,
    I think I know you....remember Miami in the 70's, where did you hang out.

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  8. Whitemule, all base on my Chart, 14.32 14.00, & 13.75 are very strong Res, I'm almost done loading in the low $14. Always do your own DD.

    TD

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  9. the coca cabana....me and the tricky one

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  10. UNG might have finished a pullback today. As the Target for the double Top on 16.20 was acomplished today on the low of 14.40. Will se if tomorrow we have confirmation with a green candle. Futures are up (Natural Gas).

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  11. i hope you are right
    i don't know if i see a pop but hopefully at least a bounce off the upper trendline of the falling wedge

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  12. Sorry, it was just for a moment. It was almost 1% up, but now neutral (NG future).

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  13. Excellents charts and i believe at short term SPX will bottom at 880-870. Then will see what happens. In my blog i showed different counts but for now i prefer the bear and ultra bear case. See more at: http://elliottmarketwaves.blogspot.com/

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  14. Nice DE. Bearish count is right where I am with the short squeeze to come. Not sure if you read my post or not from Sunday night.

    Well done as always,

    Shanky

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