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Monday, July 20, 2009

$BPSPX Update

A nice upwards trendline I noticed on the $BPSPX chart. If hit, it will challenge nicely the 2007 extremes which make sense for a P2 rally.
Again, one thing about this chart: It takes price movements to move the bullishness. The significant rally price peaks almost always match the peaks in bullishness. I don't suspect P2 should be any different. Daily percent is back to 59. But if my cool trendline is hit late summer, expect readings in the 80's.
If this thing behaves in a different way than I expect from here on out, I'll be the first to post and say so.

81 comments:

  1. 2 questions. what are the chances of getting correction and what would be the conservative estimate for that pullback. what is the ultimate top. these may not be easily answered based on the charts.

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  2. Chances are 100% of a correction. I think what your asking what price will it correct to and from what high will it first achieve.

    A nice support shelf exists at 930-934. So I think at least a hard test of that is in order.

    The next strong support shelf exists probably at 912-914. then 900 area.

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  3. Do you mean a correction on this chart? Maybe not much

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  4. No i mean the SPX. so the correction should happen in short order. today or tomorrow perhaps?
    I am being squeezed at the moment :)

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  5. Ok, the market open right at the top.

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  6. Just shorted at 956 with a tight stop.

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  7. Ok, I decide to short here too.

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  8. This should be 5 of 5 of A

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  9. This ending diagonal have to go back to the beginning of the wedge

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  10. Most likely, but it should have place to run. I am looking for 970 before the pullback starts.

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  11. this may finally be the minute iv

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  12. A decisive break of 948 will confirm the downtrend.

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  13. i think "i" ending on the open monday a complex "ii" lasting most of the day till 2:00 pm "iii" ending today on the open "iv" down to 949 now in a "v" which might fail which would end 5 of 5 from 07/13


    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=1&yr=0&mn=0&dy=3&id=p76586922272&a=172534337&listNum=12

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  14. We went thru an abc then x but if the peak gets broken then is 1 which will lead to higher prices.

    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_2IV2qZlbgks/SmXZ2oSdx1I/AAAAAAAAAGw/ULv_4GIz_SU/s1600-h/chart.jpg

    or

    http://elliotwavetrader1.blogspot.com/

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  15. EWT,

    I agree, it looks like we make another push up, but how high?

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  16. to the moon, remember the solar thing.......

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  17. It all depends on tonite's earning

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  18. b of b wrapping up. then c of b up

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  19. so you guys think we've bottomed?

    EWT does this mean you covered your short?

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  20. i say this is still a zz down from today's high

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  21. this looks like a 3 of 3 or 3 of c

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  22. i think this zz touches 942. then we'll have to see if that is just 1 of a, a or minute iv

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  23. poss double three for wave 4 of 3

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  24. Thanks for the continued updates. I got stopped on my ES trade for a loss I don't want to mention and didn't re-enter as some of you did in the 955 area. Great job. I may or may not get another chance. They pushed harder than I was expecting over the last few days.

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  25. how many think this is an abc for a of possibly a 5 wave for a?

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  26. i meant to say. how many think this is an abc for 'a' or possibly a 5 wave impulse for a?

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  27. ewt, what r ur thoughts? do u think we can still go higher or we continue lower? its looking pretty good for lower end.

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  28. It fits a 5 wave right now, certainly an possibility. Or this could be subminuette 1 of minuette i that might be askignn for too much.

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  29. i'm thinking 3 of 3/c is going to extend. go

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  30. if u believe this correction so far is an abc, then i believe 'c' is just about complete and that would make 'a'.

    if not, then we are seeing 3 of 5 for 'a' completing here.

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  31. WaveTrader,

    I'm a bit confused with your labeling. Are you saying an ABC makes an A? or an ABC makes a W?

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  32. one chi. abc makes an 'a'. so in this case a 3 wave 'a' at i believe minute. however, i have a feeling this will turn out to be a 5 wave 'a'.

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  33. if it breaks back thru 947, then more likely a 3 wave 'a' and therefore, i'm expecting a possibly flat out of this correction or the correction down so far completes an abc for minute iv.

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  34. WaveTrader,

    I didn't know ABC could make an A, I always thought WXY or WXYXZ could make an A. Anyway it is a moot point.

    If you look at a 5 minute chart, it looks like a 5 wave move down, with 3 extended and now we are doing some sort of ABC.

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  35. WaveTrader,

    Ok I see where you are coming from, an ABC would make an A in a Flat/Triangle ok I got my labeling confused there.

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  36. onechi,

    and i am talking about an abc starting from today's high of 956.53. the 5 wave move down u are referring to is a c of that abc starting from 956.53. again, that is if it is an abc only.


    i'm still thinking instead of abc, we are seeing 1, 2 and 3 play out so far, which again is starting from 956.53 today.

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  37. WaveTrader,

    Right, this is the moment of truth since an ABC technically = a 1,2,3 except we can identify the 1,2,3 as being impulsive instead of corrective. We will have to see if we run a flat scenario. We have broken out of the rising wedge as per Daneric's chart.

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  38. The break of 948.50 invalidated Alt 1, what this means at this moment is that we are in wave 1 that bottomed at 943 and now we're retracing.

    If 955 gets taken out then the count changes but it is looking like a 5 structure down so far. Again here is what I posted in the am.


    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_2IV2qZlbgks/SmXZ2oSdx1I/AAAAAAAAAGw/ULv_4GIz_SU/s1600-h/chart.jpg

    or

    http://elliotwavetrader1.blogspot.com/

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  39. And btw I am short and only covering if the 5 count gets invalidated.

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  40. ewt, i have 948.70 invalidating the 5 wave down.

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  41. If you see the chart I posted, you can see were wave 1 started. I would label the end of wave 1 as 943 and we just got a proper Fib retracement so taking out 943 would confirm wave 2.

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  42. But Alt 1 was invalidated because 955 did not break and 948 did, that's why I think we're in a 5 down.

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  43. i see more upside than downside momentum

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  44. Ok here is an updated count:

    http://elliotwavetrader1.blogspot.com/

    I think the chart is clear so far, only breaking key levels would invalidate.

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  45. ewt,

    i think we're on the same page. this is what i'm seeing:

    http://waveprinciple.blogspot.com/2009/07/impulse-down.html

    948.70 would be a 4-1 overlap

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  46. actually, looking at it again, i think i'm off. i see your wave i and ii.

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  47. by my count, 948.7 broke thru. i think we're setting up for a flat, or if the abc down was minute iv, we could be seeing a v (if u believe that there wasn't a minute iv previously). i think most likely a flat though.

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  48. may be 961 is the top of v

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  49. aapl's earning tonite will decide whether we top out or not

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  50. sheesh. of course, at the 10min lvl i can see a clear 5 wave down making a 1 at the 943 low as ewt has repeatedly stated.

    gotta love this real time stuf... so this can also still be a 2. so far it has retrace 50%. either way, we still go back down. would be good to truly id this so we can project how much further down we go.

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  51. I agree with EWT, that this is possibly a 2.

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  52. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  53. Buy the dips! Nothing but up. lol.

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  54. WaveTrader,

    You can see the 5 wave down clearly on the 5 min as well, subwaves 1 has a clear 5, subwave 2 is a clear abc as well. subwave 3 is where it gets a little iffy, it looks as if we had a leading diagonal with a minor retrace. Subwave 5 is a bit short as well. This means that the 3rd wave hasn't begun yet.

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  55. if your count is correct than 3 to 4 pm should only be one direction hour

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  56. 951 would make for a good 61.8% retrace for 2

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  57. rick are you still short ?

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  58. the problem is we still in that channel

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  59. If our count is right and we get 3rd wave tomorrow, that would line up with those solar eclipse believers lol!

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  60. BA is announcing earning tomorrow. The market will determine the direction depends on their earning, but I have a strong feeling that BA is going to beat and take the market higher tomorrow.

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  61. market putting so much hopes on AAPL earning... may be a BIG disappointment

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  62. i think aapl is baked in so there may be a sell into the news

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  63. This is simple at this point, it is a 5 structure wave down or we are in IV. We'll confirm 5 ws down when 943 gets taken out or IV if today's high is broken. Either way, we won't know until tomorrow I suspect.

    My intermediate target is 969 (1.618 of X) but I short or go long with tight stops whenever I see these points where the picture is not so clear.

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  64. If market close here, there'll be a great show tomorrow

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  65. Wow, impressive day! AAPL's price already baked in. Market is rising based on great optimistic news from BA and its Dreamliner test flight schedule announcement.

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  66. I guess that the price of AAPL was not priced in. It is up over $6 dollars after hour. So AAPL leads the day tomorrow not BA.

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  67. Today's Investor's Intelligence Bulls/Bears sentiment is relatively unchanged from last week. No one has believed this recent rally, and the sentiment figures reflect that.

    bulls: 36.7% vs 35.6 last week 7/15

    bears: 35.6% vs 35.6 last week 7/15

    The peak of Bulls this year was June 10th at 47.7% and Bears at 23.3%

    As you can see, we are nowhere near that right now here at 954 SPX.

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