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Wednesday, July 1, 2009

The Bullish Count


Someone asked me if I have a bullish option count. Yes I do, the bullish option is that 888.86 low was the Intermediate (X) wave low and that the rally since then was a slow-starting move up of the next giant zigzag to P2 peak somewhere north of 956, preferably toward the 1000 mark or above.
I don't yet have a solid count for the up moves that match all indexes (DOW is a tougher one). They don't have to match of course.
The next short term bullish option is that the market is tracing some kind of flat move and the 950's will be revisited. Or a Y wave http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2009/06/looking-for-blue-y-wave.htmlcan take the form of a running triangle which has an upward price slant. So once again, we can only take this one subwave at a time.
But I do want to show you what the true bullish option is, and that is that 888.86 is the low.
And as I said several times before, if P2 is not over, and logic holds that we are looking for another move up toward 1000, there stands an excellent chance that 888.86 will hold as the recent low.
A blue Minor Y wave running triangle would be a tricky set of waves to anticipate.

17 comments:

  1. Dan,
    I am a bit unclear
    Yesterday you mentioned target on the downside at 902.
    Do you still expect it or you see a new peak before ?

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  2. Closed longs at 924, shorting at 926 with a reasonable stop.

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  3. What the chart means is that if 930.01 gets taken out, it might turn out to be a 5th wave. But I added more shorts at 928. I think we have a 25 point ride down from here to stop conveniently at 903.

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  4. Actually, the target is 901 if 928 is the peak.

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  5. alex, its a tough read at this point to be honest.

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  6. I went short as well at this level with target at 903

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  7. My shorts got stopped out, careful here. Can an extended B wave or a bullish wave.

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  8. Rick what do you think ?
    Seems market has difficulties to break the 930 level. Time to add shorts back ?

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  9. I got stopped out at 930 but re-added again betting this was an extended B wave as sometimes they extend. Right now all TAs are bearish so good chance that 931 was the peak. If you short, do it with a tight stop and carefully.

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  10. Btw a good point for confirmation that this is not a bullish wave would be a break of the morning low of 924.

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  11. thks Rick
    I reduced a bit my short position.
    Waiting to see if we go below 924 to add more
    However not sure that we break hard before the long week-end

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  12. I don't know, I don't think 924 will hold.

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  13. well done Rick
    great call
    What target do you have on your shorts ?

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  14. I guess since 931 was the top, then assuming 1.618 of A then 905.

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  15. do you think we get to 905 tomorrow ?
    how do you see tomorrow ?

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  16. As always, I am tightening my stops and ready to jump ship at at moments notice. TA points to a continued correction but it is a guessing game at this point what will happen tomorrow. My advice, get ready to book profit at any point, you can't go wrong with that.

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