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Thursday, July 23, 2009

Bullish Sentiment Update

Bullishness is still diverging. I found a small example on the last wave 2 rally of significance, the Intermediate (2) in Spring 2008. Its instructive I think.

The continued divergence, portends even higher prices to come (eventually). The market is due of course for some kind of consolidation first. A consolidation move (the B wave pullback I am looking for) would have the effect of also consolidating bullishness as long as prices maintain support levels more or less. What levels? I suppose 950 was a key resistance battleground area so the market will attempt to maintain this major level.

I used to think a dip to the 930 - 934 support area would occur (and it still of course may - its certainly not out of the question) but now since the market ranged high above 950, I think they aim to basically keep the price retrace extreme above or near 950 support. What was major resistance, becomes major support. So more consolidation at or above 950 would allow the final run to 1000 and above in a final C wave move.

If it dips lower than 950, it might be quick. There are a lot of shorts I imagine still trapped and/or doubled or even tripled down and getting nervous.

Anyways that's my current thoughts at the moment.

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