Custom Search

Sunday, July 26, 2009

Citibank and the Banking Laggards

I showed you how the banking index is looking pretty weak in comparison to the rally over the last 2 weeks.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/SmpxRzhr2zI/AAAAAAAABLc/vSku2u_goo4/s1600-h/banks.png

What really caught my eye about the banking index charts is just how much out of whack they are getting as per the SPX. Banks are seriously lagging in these past few weeks. Look at the recent gap between banks and SPX on rally performance. You can see it on the banking chart.

However the gap between the SPX and banks needs to be reconciled in one way or another. I suspect that the SPX will begin to pull back in a B wave and the banks will slowly close the gap as a rally laggard and may not drop as much as the SPX and start to show positive divergence. The combined effects of both price actions will close the banks versus SPX gap and then when the SPX B wave is over, the banks will indeed finally lead the last rally bid to P2 peak.

BKX may or may not make a new high, I am not certain.

That brings me to the Citibank chart. It also is due to catch a bid. It may have some very short term weakness down to the sub $2.50 range briefly, but if P2 is to continue on, C looks like it is ready to catch a bid sooner or later. The continuing positive RSI divergence is what caught my eye on C.

C is just a short ride back down to penny stock land. But before it does that, I think it has "one last hurrah" rally up prior to P3 starting. Other banks may do the same.

49 comments:

  1. Nice EW on C.....you are thinking like the cabal.......i like it.....

    ReplyDelete
  2. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Yea, very good work here and thinking outside the box.

    The $NDX (nasdaq 100), without too many people noticing (because everyone uses the $COMP)...is almost back to PRE-2008 crash levels here.

    Yet there is nothing about BIG CAP tech that is giving signals of a "new bull market". They are simply the LEAST exposed to the financials! That is why they are the leaders. But its not a growth, bull trend, its a safe heaven trend....that's why they are pumped up so high.

    Pull up a NDX weekly or even MONTHLY chart, and ya can see what I mean. (that is the ONLY index that actually made a higher low in mar vrs nov). But long term trendlines, it is about to meet an iron wall here.

    This is a great post dano.
    And i do agree, that whatever the "last spasm" of P2 is, when it "does happen".... It going to be from the banks. I think ndx sells off this coming week finally.

    But just along w/ EWT theory and the entire P2=Disbelief. The way to get bearish capitulation and a "P2 top" is not going to be from aapl/intc getting another "upgrade".

    It's going to be some kinda of wallstreet headling like "Roubinni pours his entire IRA into BANK stocks" or somecrap LOL.

    If P2 is all about bears doubting the down move was even real, well then the climax basically needs to be done via FINANCIAL enthusiasm. (ie lies fed to us)

    Dead on insight here. TECH is due a pullback, and i can totally see the BANKS here actually holding ground, then later after tech cools off, the banks giving the last pop....same scenario.

    I just can not see from a "sector/sentiment" perspective, that P2 ends with a bullish "BIG TECH" sentiment.......that does not make bears really doubt it enough.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Erik,

    It hasn't been just TECH that has lead the market here... Feel free to take a look at the charts of the CYCLICAL stocks. Have you even looked at BTU, FCX, BNI, X, or the OIH at all???

    ReplyDelete
  5. Erik,

    The $NDX top in Oct. 2007 was 2213. It's currently at 1599. That leaves 614 more points to reach the prior top, or 38% higher from here.

    So how can you say that The "$NDX (nasdaq 100) is almost back to PRE-2008 crash levels here"?

    ReplyDelete
  6. SRS Player,

    I am not reffering to its Oct 2007 "Top". I am reffering to its PRE-Sept 2008 crash. It has retraced (% wise) by FAR the most of any of the indexes from that move.

    Take a look at the Weekly chart. The $NDX has retraced the full 61.8% of the down move from Sept 2008. (actually 1615 is the ezact fib retrace pricfe)

    the SPX, INDU, RUT are all 3 on the verge here of touching the 50% retrace, while the ndx is about to kiss the 61.8% (again i am not reffering to the TOP, i am reffering to SEPT 2008)

    The NDX is 61.8% back here (well at 1615 is it) to its pre "CRASH" levels, or pre "Wave 3 of P1" level.

    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Qdtp9kZdS-Y/Smuk-ClYQ_I/AAAAAAAAAfg/pTy_jeidQ04/s1600-h/ndx_month.bmp
    (Monthly)


    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Qdtp9kZdS-Y/SmukVLdB0tI/AAAAAAAAAe4/s3DXR-94kC8/s1600-h/ndx.bmp (weekly)

    ReplyDelete
  7. http://erikmarketview.blogspot.com/2009/07/index-numbers-to-watch-ndx-is-leader.html

    there are ALL the weekly index charts, with fib levels placed both on the 2007 TOP as well as on September 2008 to compare them all.

    So you can see what I mean on charts.. $NDX is leaps and bounds ahead of the others....

    ReplyDelete
  8. Wags, I am talking longer term here.
    The NDX has retraced by FAR the most since the sept crash. 61% to be ezact here, while the SPX, INDU and RUT are all still at about 48% right here.

    Looking at it from an index perspective, not individual sectors.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Erik,

    Thanks for clarifying what you meant. When you originally said "PRE-2008" I thought you meant 2007. But when you insert "Pre-SEPTEMBER-2008" that changes everything.

    Thanks, too, for your links to the charts that show what you mean: that the Nasdaq 100 (Big Tech) has fallen less, and recovered more, than the other major indices.

    ReplyDelete
  10. fallen ALOT less
    recovered ALOT more

    the ndx is even alot differant from the comp that most would think.

    I think its way overlooked

    ReplyDelete
  11. Erik,

    Understood.
    I was simply addressing your point about the current leadership.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Erik,

    I understand your emphasis on the outperformance of the Nasdaq 100 compared to the other major indices. But I also think you are overstating that "the $NDX...is almost back to Pre-(Sept.)-2008 crash levels here."

    The $NDX pre-September crash started on 8-11-08 from 1957 and bottomed on 3-2-09 at 1067. Now it's at 1599, which is a rise off the bottom of 535 points. That leaves 358 more points to rise just to get "back" to the 1957 level of 8-11-08. The $NDX has recovered 60% of its decline from 1957 (not to even mention its longer fall from its 2213 top in Oct. 2007), but still has 40% to go to regain your chosen starting point. I don't think that having 40% still left to reach 1957 is "almost back". It's more accurate to say that the $NDX is "over half-way back" to 1957 (and less than half-way back to 2213).

    ReplyDelete
  13. It's interesting to see that Citibank has come into some minor trouble. They've been having issues with getting pay packages authorized (Source: MarketNewsVideo.com); I wonder if that's the cause?

    ReplyDelete
  14. Andrew Hall is one of the greatest energy traders there has ever been. He runs Phibro, which was acquired by Citi in 1998, via Travelers Group acquiring Salomon Brothers back in 1997.

    As part of his deal with Citi, he essentially asked them to leave he and his energy trading group alone up in Westport, CT. Hall and his group are very talented and woudl be gobbled up in a heartbeat should Citi not be able to honor their compensation agreement with Hall and his group at Phibro.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Here is lots of useful information about Compare Bank Accounts also you can directly apply for prepaid mastercard, credit cards and debit cards.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Here is lots of useful information about Compare Bank Accounts also you can directly apply for prepaid mastercard, credit cards and debit cards.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Have I tried a few, most definitely. Robert Riohe is a well-known author, he has been writing different blogs on different topics like health,nutrition,supplements etc.
    If this kind of business you are looking for or planning to go into
    just for the reason that you wanted to consult or even handle those promotions for other businesses, well then, make sure that don’t fail to notice the opportunity to point out those costumers or clients of yours who are potentials in which you grow
    your own business with the very techniques you wanted to provide
    to them.

    Also visit my blog :: Internet Marketing Plan

    ReplyDelete
  18. Password protection is an ideal way to protect sensitive information you prefer only those authorized have access to.
    Many styles of flowers are available at the marketplace especially doomed for ornamentation prospect.

    This site helps you find vendors within your local area.

    my web site; wedding website album

    ReplyDelete
  19. With the increasing fan base your product sale will also considerably
    increase and your marketing objectives will be easily achieved.
    Everyone knows that the internet is a global village where it is very simple to reach your audience for the promotion of specific business idea,
    products or services. Buy facebook fans or buy twitter
    followers is a way to increase the frequency of customer
    visits to your site and in other way, to bring more potential customers to your business.


    Here is my web blog; Buy Google Plus One Votes Cheap

    ReplyDelete
  20. Chords introduce harmony into music and it is
    the effects created by chords that produce the inspiration behind so much music and make it so satisfying both to listen to and to play.
    So you want to learn how to play the piano. ][.

    Also visit my website :: piano Chords and Keys

    ReplyDelete
  21. He will know when he’s done something bad or good.
    This will help make navigating the weaving poles a habit
    for you dog. Oh, Behave Dog Training and Behavior Counseling.



    My weblog: don sullivan dog Training as seen on tv
    Also see my webpage: therapy dog training austin

    ReplyDelete
  22. The decor on the inside of the restaurant is absolutely beautiful.
    Local country clubs are offering trivia fun for as little as forty dollars per couple.
    They feature almost nightly drink specials and some form of entertainment every night of the week--DJ's, live music, trivia, you name it.

    Stop by my weblog ... fun pub quiz names

    ReplyDelete
  23. If you're on a budget have your guests light sparklers as you depart. 5. If you don't have time, think about hiring someone for Best wedding website.


    my weblog wedding website about me

    ReplyDelete
  24. Food has become the most overused drug and the most underused form of nutrition.
    - 1 tsp cinnamon (optional). Ingredients.

    Here is my homepage ... paleo Diet and cholesterol levels

    ReplyDelete
  25. Think about fields that interest you, talents with which you are blessed and needs that are
    not being met to come up with your own list of outside the box job ideas self employment.
    Perhaps, the way to go will probably be yes. Oh, Behave Dog Training
    and Behavior Counseling.

    Feel free to visit my webpage - dog Training advice forum
    my website :: Police Dog Training Articles

    ReplyDelete
  26. I enjoy what you guys are usually up too. Such clever work and exposure!
    Keep up the very good works guys I've incorporated you guys to my personal blogroll.

    Also visit my page - kids birthday party ideas
    Also see my page: kids birthday party ideas

    ReplyDelete
  27. Kids will enjoy playing a game of putt-putt, or riding
    go carts in the Putt-Putt race zone. If there are not enough people then make groups of three and a group of four.
    Shortly after everyone arrived, I gathered everyone around the table to find a rail-air-cloud by activity.


    Also visit my website ... 16th birthday party ideas
    My webpage > 18th birthday party ideas

    ReplyDelete
  28. This is usually considered a fun and effective learning method in general.
    As an alternative, it will most likely be far more powerful for you to learn about audio and chord idea.
    offers free online piano lessons.

    Also visit my blog post: piano chords and lyrics of songs

    ReplyDelete
  29. Fashion Games of Teen Girls Interested Are Fun These challenges are at times shared amongst buddies.
    The game was released on August 3, and is in stores now, but probably is where
    it will remain, sad to say. You Divide everyone at the party
    into two groups, or tribes.

    Here is my web blog; motel reservations

    ReplyDelete
  30. On Sunday nights Erin Jaimes hosts a blues jam where anyone from
    Alan Haynes to Gary Clark, Jr. Anna had been looking through my phone while I was naked.
    The food is decent and the drink specials on Tuesdays include $2.



    Here is my webpage best pub quiz names

    ReplyDelete
  31. Later on, among the continued practice ending up will continue to be auxiliary accustomed
    burning the various chords. Do not overlook this part of your learning.
    Once you know these scales, in all twelve keys, then you have a
    very solid foundation on which to learn how to play piano chords.


    Also visit my site - piano chords america the beautiful

    ReplyDelete
  32. The only hurdle to accessing this is of course human limitations
    and the fact that the brain does not function solely as a learning tool
    for the human being. Anna had been looking through my phone while I was
    naked. The food is decent and the drink specials on
    Tuesdays include $2.

    My web site - Pub Quiz Austin Texas

    ReplyDelete
  33. By dividing up the party at several peoples houses you make it easy on
    yourself. This was zero cost because the students went to local stores
    and asked for either donations and gift cards to purchase these items.
    Every Halloween party that people remember later in the year
    by saying things like "Do you remember so-and-so's Halloween party last year.

    My page refinancing home mortgage

    ReplyDelete
  34. So you are looking to rid your girl of these unwanted stalkers when you
    are drawn to Willow Creek's Black Mirror Castle. Unfortunately for me as an addict, I need my crime fix. At each house you have the hostess serve something small to eat, and host a small game.

    Feel free to surf to my homepage :: Barnes And noble

    ReplyDelete
  35. By dividing up the party at several peoples houses you make it
    easy on yourself. A murder mystery game is a fun
    way to pass the time during the twenties theme party. You Divide everyone at the party into two groups, or tribes.


    Review my webpage pet insurance

    ReplyDelete
  36. Some models are even outfitted with a child seat that is removable.

    Kayaks are usually categorized firstly by their framework,
    and secondly by their function. Now let us look at the specific needs of a kayak fishermen when it comes
    to his craft.

    Here is my site; Currency trading

    ReplyDelete
  37. If your tween is into paint-ball you can take everyone to play paint-ball.
    For adults, a virtual makeover of hair and makeup may be the equivalent of a little one hood game, with an improved style sensibility that tends to make the knowledge each entertaining and inspirational.
    Spice things up by including these Halloween-themes recipes:.


    Have a look at my webpage; fort lauderdale hotels

    ReplyDelete
  38. ' Satanic Ritual - Decorate the space with human sacrifice, goblets of blood, pentagrams, and things draped in black. Unfortunately for me as an addict, I need my crime fix. I hope you have fun planing a birthday party for your tween, I hope my birthday party ideas for tween's helped you.


    Here is my web site; keyshia cole

    ReplyDelete
  39. Narrow blood vessels lie alongside the intestines of
    the earthworm and they absorb the nutrients from the alimentary canal feeding the rest of the body.
    You must definitely be planning to make it special and memorable by keeping a good theme, ordering
    the best food and choosing the best games. Theme Format:
    It is almost like standard format of the pub quiz.

    My blog post :: free quiz answer Sheets

    ReplyDelete
  40. I will be most certainly of the perception a magic formula so that you can
    Doggie Behavior is top-notch level item that supplies a
    large number involving quality info for a surprisingly low value.
    Another tip is to start with the basic skills. It is wise to take the classical conditioning method first because it is easier to do.


    Also visit my blog ... bird dog training aids

    ReplyDelete
  41. By dividing up the party at several peoples houses you make it easy on yourself.
    I've played Nancy Drew for years and even her saccharine personality is more 3D than Lindsay or 'Linds') as she calls herself. Now, one of my co-workers was applying to the Secret Service and I knew that I was down as a reference for her.

    Feel free to visit my web-site; disney vacation

    ReplyDelete
  42. If your tween is into paint-ball you can take everyone to play paint-ball.
    I've played Nancy Drew for years and even her saccharine personality is more 3D than Lindsay or 'Linds') as she calls herself. Spice things up by including these Halloween-themes recipes:.

    Feel free to surf to my homepage h r block

    ReplyDelete
  43. The decor on the inside of the restaurant is absolutely beautiful.
    *Rounds table format. The decline of the East side blues scene was disheartening, but, it
    also gave rise to the need for a fresh start,
    which came in the form of the next blues-only venue, Antone's, founded by the late Clifford Antone, during the summer of 1975.

    Here is my page ... pub quiz austin

    ReplyDelete
  44. Sun protection gloves are one of the best ways to protect your hands in the
    sun, especially when you are driving. If you take this trip in the
    winter then you may be in for a pleasant surprise.
    My friends and I heard the state hatcheries
    department had released some trout upstream from us and we eventually stumbled upon a half dozen of them in the clear waters.



    Here is my webpage: water shoes

    ReplyDelete
  45. Narrow blood vessels lie alongside the intestines of the earthworm and they absorb the nutrients from
    the alimentary canal feeding the rest of the body.

    Local country clubs are offering trivia fun
    for as little as forty dollars per couple. The decline of the East
    side blues scene was disheartening, but, it also gave
    rise to the need for a fresh start, which came in the form of the next blues-only venue, Antone's, founded by the late Clifford Antone, during the summer of 1975.

    Also visit my web blog - pub quiz answers and questions

    ReplyDelete
  46. Narrow blood vessels lie alongside the intestines of the earthworm and
    they absorb the nutrients from the alimentary canal feeding the rest of
    the body. Popular prizes include sports tickets, cash and vouchers for
    drinks, food - and dollars off of tabs. They feature almost nightly drink specials and some form of entertainment every
    night of the week--DJ's, live music, trivia, you name it.

    my web blog - funny pub Quiz names

    ReplyDelete
  47. The only hurdle to accessing this is of course human limitations and the fact that
    the brain does not function solely as a learning tool for the human being.
    * Team answer sheets - Basically a grid lined A4 type sheet with answer write in numbered boxes
    and a line on top for the team name. The decline of the East side blues scene was disheartening, but, it also gave
    rise to the need for a fresh start, which came in the form of the next blues-only venue, Antone's, founded by the late Clifford Antone, during the summer of 1975.

    Feel free to surf to my webpage; pub quiz and answers

    ReplyDelete
  48. The only hurdle to accessing this is of course human limitations and the fact that the brain does not function solely as a learning
    tool for the human being. Below are listed a few popular pubs where one can chill in Mumbai.

    The decline of the East side blues scene was disheartening, but, it also gave rise to the need
    for a fresh start, which came in the form of the next blues-only venue, Antone's, founded by the late Clifford Antone, during the summer of 1975.

    Also visit my web page; pub quiz and answers

    ReplyDelete
  49. Sant Ritz is more than just a home. Its combination of condominium status with contemporary
    ville living.the interlace

    ReplyDelete