I showed you how the banking index is looking pretty weak in comparison to the rally over the last 2 weeks.http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/SmpxRzhr2zI/AAAAAAAABLc/vSku2u_goo4/s1600-h/banks.png
What really caught my eye about the banking index charts is just how much out of whack they are getting as per the SPX. Banks are seriously lagging in these past few weeks. Look at the recent gap between banks and SPX on rally performance. You can see it on the banking chart.
However the gap between the SPX and banks needs to be reconciled in one way or another. I suspect that the SPX will begin to pull back in a B wave and the banks will slowly close the gap as a rally laggard and may not drop as much as the SPX and start to show positive divergence. The combined effects of both price actions will close the banks versus SPX gap and then when the SPX B wave is over, the banks will indeed finally lead the last rally bid to P2 peak.
BKX may or may not make a new high, I am not certain.
That brings me to the Citibank chart. It also is due to catch a bid. It may have some very short term weakness down to the sub $2.50 range briefly, but if P2 is to continue on, C looks like it is ready to catch a bid sooner or later. The continuing positive RSI divergence is what caught my eye on C.
C is just a short ride back down to penny stock land. But before it does that, I think it has "one last hurrah" rally up prior to P3 starting. Other banks may do the same.
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Nice EW on C.....you are thinking like the cabal.......i like it.....
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteYea, very good work here and thinking outside the box.
ReplyDeleteThe $NDX (nasdaq 100), without too many people noticing (because everyone uses the $COMP)...is almost back to PRE-2008 crash levels here.
Yet there is nothing about BIG CAP tech that is giving signals of a "new bull market". They are simply the LEAST exposed to the financials! That is why they are the leaders. But its not a growth, bull trend, its a safe heaven trend....that's why they are pumped up so high.
Pull up a NDX weekly or even MONTHLY chart, and ya can see what I mean. (that is the ONLY index that actually made a higher low in mar vrs nov). But long term trendlines, it is about to meet an iron wall here.
This is a great post dano.
And i do agree, that whatever the "last spasm" of P2 is, when it "does happen".... It going to be from the banks. I think ndx sells off this coming week finally.
But just along w/ EWT theory and the entire P2=Disbelief. The way to get bearish capitulation and a "P2 top" is not going to be from aapl/intc getting another "upgrade".
It's going to be some kinda of wallstreet headling like "Roubinni pours his entire IRA into BANK stocks" or somecrap LOL.
If P2 is all about bears doubting the down move was even real, well then the climax basically needs to be done via FINANCIAL enthusiasm. (ie lies fed to us)
Dead on insight here. TECH is due a pullback, and i can totally see the BANKS here actually holding ground, then later after tech cools off, the banks giving the last pop....same scenario.
I just can not see from a "sector/sentiment" perspective, that P2 ends with a bullish "BIG TECH" sentiment.......that does not make bears really doubt it enough.
Erik,
ReplyDeleteIt hasn't been just TECH that has lead the market here... Feel free to take a look at the charts of the CYCLICAL stocks. Have you even looked at BTU, FCX, BNI, X, or the OIH at all???
Erik,
ReplyDeleteThe $NDX top in Oct. 2007 was 2213. It's currently at 1599. That leaves 614 more points to reach the prior top, or 38% higher from here.
So how can you say that The "$NDX (nasdaq 100) is almost back to PRE-2008 crash levels here"?
SRS Player,
ReplyDeleteI am not reffering to its Oct 2007 "Top". I am reffering to its PRE-Sept 2008 crash. It has retraced (% wise) by FAR the most of any of the indexes from that move.
Take a look at the Weekly chart. The $NDX has retraced the full 61.8% of the down move from Sept 2008. (actually 1615 is the ezact fib retrace pricfe)
the SPX, INDU, RUT are all 3 on the verge here of touching the 50% retrace, while the ndx is about to kiss the 61.8% (again i am not reffering to the TOP, i am reffering to SEPT 2008)
The NDX is 61.8% back here (well at 1615 is it) to its pre "CRASH" levels, or pre "Wave 3 of P1" level.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Qdtp9kZdS-Y/Smuk-ClYQ_I/AAAAAAAAAfg/pTy_jeidQ04/s1600-h/ndx_month.bmp
(Monthly)
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Qdtp9kZdS-Y/SmukVLdB0tI/AAAAAAAAAe4/s3DXR-94kC8/s1600-h/ndx.bmp (weekly)
http://erikmarketview.blogspot.com/2009/07/index-numbers-to-watch-ndx-is-leader.html
ReplyDeletethere are ALL the weekly index charts, with fib levels placed both on the 2007 TOP as well as on September 2008 to compare them all.
So you can see what I mean on charts.. $NDX is leaps and bounds ahead of the others....
Wags, I am talking longer term here.
ReplyDeleteThe NDX has retraced by FAR the most since the sept crash. 61% to be ezact here, while the SPX, INDU and RUT are all still at about 48% right here.
Looking at it from an index perspective, not individual sectors.
Erik,
ReplyDeleteThanks for clarifying what you meant. When you originally said "PRE-2008" I thought you meant 2007. But when you insert "Pre-SEPTEMBER-2008" that changes everything.
Thanks, too, for your links to the charts that show what you mean: that the Nasdaq 100 (Big Tech) has fallen less, and recovered more, than the other major indices.
fallen ALOT less
ReplyDeleterecovered ALOT more
the ndx is even alot differant from the comp that most would think.
I think its way overlooked
Erik,
ReplyDeleteUnderstood.
I was simply addressing your point about the current leadership.
Erik,
ReplyDeleteI understand your emphasis on the outperformance of the Nasdaq 100 compared to the other major indices. But I also think you are overstating that "the $NDX...is almost back to Pre-(Sept.)-2008 crash levels here."
The $NDX pre-September crash started on 8-11-08 from 1957 and bottomed on 3-2-09 at 1067. Now it's at 1599, which is a rise off the bottom of 535 points. That leaves 358 more points to rise just to get "back" to the 1957 level of 8-11-08. The $NDX has recovered 60% of its decline from 1957 (not to even mention its longer fall from its 2213 top in Oct. 2007), but still has 40% to go to regain your chosen starting point. I don't think that having 40% still left to reach 1957 is "almost back". It's more accurate to say that the $NDX is "over half-way back" to 1957 (and less than half-way back to 2213).
It's interesting to see that Citibank has come into some minor trouble. They've been having issues with getting pay packages authorized (Source: MarketNewsVideo.com); I wonder if that's the cause?
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