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Sunday, July 26, 2009

Citibank and the Banking Laggards

I showed you how the banking index is looking pretty weak in comparison to the rally over the last 2 weeks.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/SmpxRzhr2zI/AAAAAAAABLc/vSku2u_goo4/s1600-h/banks.png

What really caught my eye about the banking index charts is just how much out of whack they are getting as per the SPX. Banks are seriously lagging in these past few weeks. Look at the recent gap between banks and SPX on rally performance. You can see it on the banking chart.

However the gap between the SPX and banks needs to be reconciled in one way or another. I suspect that the SPX will begin to pull back in a B wave and the banks will slowly close the gap as a rally laggard and may not drop as much as the SPX and start to show positive divergence. The combined effects of both price actions will close the banks versus SPX gap and then when the SPX B wave is over, the banks will indeed finally lead the last rally bid to P2 peak.

BKX may or may not make a new high, I am not certain.

That brings me to the Citibank chart. It also is due to catch a bid. It may have some very short term weakness down to the sub $2.50 range briefly, but if P2 is to continue on, C looks like it is ready to catch a bid sooner or later. The continuing positive RSI divergence is what caught my eye on C.

C is just a short ride back down to penny stock land. But before it does that, I think it has "one last hurrah" rally up prior to P3 starting. Other banks may do the same.

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