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Monday, July 27, 2009

e-minis

Maybe an ending diagonal playing out. That would explain the zigzag-looking up moves on Friday.

44 comments:

  1. 982.49 may be the top of minute v

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  2. WaveTrader,

    Certainly has a good relationship. Minutette (i) = Minutette (v)

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  3. i see that same relationship to onechi

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  4. fibonacci projections indicate a possible minuette wave iii of this move down so far to touch approx 966.

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  5. WaveTrader,

    Don't know how to count the dip after home sales report. Looks like a 3. Thoughts?

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  6. WT,

    Looks like a small impulse up also after the dip.

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  7. OneChi,

    stepped away for a while. i see that small impulse as well, but so far looking like it's liking the 61% retrace of the impulse down? almost looks like a very long wave c of an exp flat for minuette ii if my count is correct

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  8. i wouldnt rule out a flat potential here as well on the dip after home sales results either

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  9. WT,

    Agree, with the potential counts, too early to call.

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  10. Do we get to 997 this week before the pull back? I recalled Dan't projection of 997 just not long ago. I do understand and agree with Dan's prediction of a coming correction for the market, but lately I just don't see fear and selling pressure in the market. Many fear to miss the boat of SPX 1000 and seem to be all aboard with a lot of buying to anticipate of SPX 1000 or higher.

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  11. mandy,

    as of right now, i see 982.49 as the top of the impulse that started on 7/8. so far, it appears the correction may have begun.

    however, i will be more convinced if price breaks below 965.95.

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  12. W.T. thanks a lot for your feedback. Always love reading your analysis and input of the market. The housing report out this morning is better than expected so maybe we see a minor correction as profit taking and move on higher to 980 to 1000, you think? Or you believe that this is it for the last rally? Thanks.

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  13. I anticipate a mild correction not a huge one before SPX 1000. I will be interested in knowing where the mild correction taking us in the next 10 days.

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  14. " I will be interested in knowing where the mild correction taking us in the next 10 days." you and me both :)

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  15. and as the morning has progressed, i do see an addtl count:

    this morning's high may only be the top of minuette iii of minute v. what has transpired since this am's high is minuette iv (forming a triangle) of minute v.

    so in the end:

    a break above 982.49 will confirm that

    or a break below 965.95 confirms minute v was in at 982.49

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  16. Yeah WT, my count is minuette iii. The day has been a bit of a bore but plenty of time to try the long with a tight stop.

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  17. WT,

    Minute iv triangle will make the Minor A impulse look a lot better.

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  18. WT,

    A more bearish count with 982.49 as the high would be that we are getting a one two one two right now or an extension of 3rd wave down from the top.

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  19. looks like a break out of the subminuette iv of my minuette iii down. again. watching those levels.

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  20. WT,

    I forgot to mention another thing, the Minute iv triangle could actually be a B wave triangle and we won't get that big of a retracement for B as we continue to power through C wave.

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  21. my near term count:

    http://waveprinciple.blogspot.com/2009/07/my-near-term-count-for-1030-pst.html

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  22. WT,

    Starting to look like the triangle.

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  23. Judging by the action today, seems like Dan's count is the correct one. The 972 low invalidates Kenny's count. So maybe 972 was the A leg in the minuettes and now we're on the B.

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  24. WT, no selling pressure. The optimism is strong after today's housing report that has jumped over 16.7% in less than 6 months. Where do you think the market go by end of the day? I think that it will close green.

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  25. If this is B, we should see 972 broken by the end of the day or tomorrow by the C wave.

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  26. the fact that we are still within 982.49 and 965.95 i cannot say (at least for today). still waiting to see which price breaks first. what i can't ignore is the vix's move today and its break out of a descending wedge/triangle (60 min). it may look to impulse higher

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  27. my primary count (near term) at this time is minuette ii topping at 979.30. the alt count would be a flat/exp flat scenario coming off of minute v top of 982.49

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  28. I seen potential rising wedge on the 5 minute.

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  29. and if we hit/break 981, my minuette ii will be invalidated and the flat/exp flat plays out

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  30. Dan's projection of 997 might achieve in the day or two.

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  31. i am still counting this as a "2" down to 966 on friday, the move up to 980 late friday as a "i" of "3", an irregular flat to todays lows of 972 as "ii" of "3", (i could be wrong)

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  32. WT,

    This could be a big running triangle/ascending triangle starting the close of Thursday 23rd fo 2009. We might have experieced the A,B,C,D and now E wave. Upside momentum has been waning but if they keep buying the dips, we'll end up higher.

    Another proposition that looks ok to me is an ending diagonal. One that is still going on right now as we complete wave 3 of the ending diagonal. Like EWT said we are forming a rising wedge on the 5 minute, this could possible be an ending diagonal of bigger proportions that will take until tomorrow to finish.

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  33. Man, there have been so many proposed ED's in this market rally since the March lows that it really is tough making another call for an ED.

    Just my two cents.
    :)

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  34. I see market Plunge tomorrow

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  35. i say that is a likely scenario if the vix has any correlation. i see a new potential impulse up on the vix (60 min) breaking out of a wedge. looks like a wave ii is in progress, which leads me to believe there will be a iii higher starting possibly today leading into tomorrow.

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  36. So far it looks like a B peaked at 981 already and now we're on C.

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  37. I guess not.. technically this should still be B. But I'm hedged as of 980, it has been impossible to count waves in this market in the last couple of weeks.

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  38. is that a hanging man on spx daily

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  39. http://www.market-harmonics.com/free-charts/sentiment/nu.htm

    (Market Sentiment using the Rydex Nova/Ursa ratio).

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  40. onechi,

    i think this call, "WT,

    This could be a big running triangle/ascending triangle starting the close of Thursday 23rd fo 2009. We might have experieced the A,B,C,D and now E wave. Upside momentum has been waning but if they keep buying the dips, we'll end up higher.

    Another proposition that looks ok to me is an ending diagonal. One that is still going on right now as we complete wave 3 of the ending diagonal. Like EWT said we are forming a rising wedge on the 5 minute, this could possible be an ending diagonal of bigger proportions that will take until tomorrow to finish." , is gonna be right. kudos to u.

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