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Sunday, July 12, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 10 July


I will stick with 869 as the (X) wave low until proven otherwise. However, I admit, I don't have superior confidence that this low will hold. I am in a wait and see mode. I would still rather see the market hold above 840 if a final P2 new rally high is to take shape this summer. So my 30 minute chart has an interpretation that would allow a move under 869 and also hold above 840. Call the whole thing a triple ZZ down from 956 (although it could also look like a double in reality - no matter - you get the idea of the moves).

The 1 minute chart interpretation supports a bullish move to backtest the H&S neckline. How the market deals with that backtest will be the key to the next set of market moves of course.

So 869 still makes a decent (X) wave low. If not, then my imaginative chart might play out in some form or another. That blue W - X trendline may point the way.

19 comments:

  1. I was thinking about this triple zigzag scenario as well this weekend and I like it in terms of wave structure. 931.92->869.32 just does not look like 5 waves, at least nicely proportioned waves. However we have been seeing this pattern quite a bit lately, at least in other wave degrees.

    I also strongly believe that there is more upside remaining, at least enough to form the 'c' wave of a triangle that started the 8th.

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  2. Hi Daneric, great EW analysis! Join us also to post your graphs or comments in our site: http://www.bostonwealth.net/2009/07/12/morties-irreverent-post-12jul2009/

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  3. 865 would be a perfect fit from what I see, 67 days from 666 to the 956 high, 21 days down from 956 to 865 ( if it hits July 13) 21/67 .3134 289.45 pts up from Mar 6, 289.45 X .3134 = 865.52 .3134*2=.6268 also July 14 is 89 days from the 666 low if the market rallies from 865 i think it's an important low if not....

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=10&id=p91397462270&a=160196411&listNum=12

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  4. use this chart instead.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=10&id=p10587180235&a=169873121&listNum=12

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  5. I agree with Dan's top chart. I was calling this last move up C of C but names are a lot less relevant than trading in the correct direction. :)

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  6. so far it is looking more like my alternate call. if spx does not break 888, that triangle may become my best count.

    http://waveprinciple.blogspot.com/2009/07/spx-7-10-2009-one-alternative-view.html

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  7. so far looks like 880.99 was it for wave 'c' of the triangle.

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  8. this is what i'm seeing so far, like a said in my in my earier post, i'm looking for 865 i'd to see it today or tues, AM.


    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=1&yr=0&mn=0&dy=4&id=p56738662227

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  9. Grand, your triangle B wave theory is looking good. We'll see how wave E behaves.

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  10. michael,

    this last surge surprised me but still within the triangle parameters. i guess we will have to see how this plays out!

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  11. the futures have a little bit of a different look than the cash, i'm wondering if the monday low could be the final E low.

    http://www.insidefutures.com/charts/index.php?sym=SPu9&overlay=&type=BAR&density=H&grid=1&mouseover=1&volume=1&scale=LIN&myStudy=&aggregation=D&a=I:90&studies=SSTO(14,3)

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  12. Here is the FIB retracement. Closing positions if it trades below 895.

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  13. Heading to 913 today at all?

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  14. Rick, what additional upside do you see to market ?

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  15. Given the length of the wave from 831 to 869, this could easily retrace to 50%, 61.2% of the wave. So 900-910. However, gap support at 914 serves as the ceiling that can not be broken.

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  16. Rick,
    why do you hedge at 899 ?

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  17. That wave from this morning (875) has a good chance of retracing to 890 so I am adding a short position to take advantage of that.

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