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Monday, July 13, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 July

Well my call for 869 as the (X) wave low http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2009/07/elliott-wave-update-8-july.htmlis on firmer footing due to the advance/decline volume ratio ending today at 10.25 at the high. That makes it easily a 90% up day I believe. The most since the middle of May when the market originally broke upwards past 930. So that was certainly bullish and will cause the bears to doubt their positions. I expected a backtest of mid-890's and that happened. The ending on today's high paints a bullish picture.

My primary count is that a final giant 5-3-5 zigzag to P2 peak will form off the second red (X) wave low. So its a matter of counting the first 5 Minute [v] waves up, finding the blue B wave correction and then another [v] waves up. I have today labeled as only pink Minuette (iii) of Minute [i] so as you can see, the market would have a ways to go if the degree markings are correct. A summer rally that takes 6-8 weeks. But thats getting ahead of myself again.

I'll have a squiggle chart later.

What if 869 was not the second (X) wave low? Well, look for another 5 wave move down or a 5-3-5 structure down to a new low. How bearish a move is up to the market however I look for a low to hold above 840-845 because I don't think a final rally to P2 peak can happen from a low spot and make it back to the high 900's or 1000.

However a 10-1 up day does not bode well for the bears. That's some real buying right there and was the upside surprise the market needed. The last [b] wave rally from 888 to 931 had an 8-1 up day in there but it did not hit that magic 9-1 spot and the rally was more ragged. And it failed eventually lower.

So we will see. Market needs to follow through some more and any pullbacks need to be on lighter volume.

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