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Thursday, July 30, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 30 July (Alt added)

The e-mini chart was added as an Alternate count.


UPDATE: 5:17 PM I added an alternate count using the e-minis. It would be one last squeaker to a new high.

The waves count nicely as complete for Minor Blue A. The sub waves since the 996 high are impulsive down (yet they only form a nice zigzag at the moment - need more down to confirm this isn't just a last corrective pullback before a squeaker high). The upper trend line was hit perfectly. 1000 was not hit (expected!) yet and the old gap from 1007-1001 or so remains. Negative divergence on the daily, a first for this up rally and expected at the top. VIX remains elevated and looks actually ready to move higher.
Bullish sentiment is challenging P2 rally high.


So Minor B pullback is imminent and I believe has already started. I'll be looking at support levels and such but eventually I expect the 950 area to be reached in a major back test of support. The 38% Fib retrace is at about 948.

4 comments:

  1. Nice work as always Daneric. I went with your alternative count, but struggled all day between your primary count and your alternative count. Tomorrow, being the end of the month, could tip things in favor of some window dressing supporting the alternative count, but I could certainly argue for both right now. Nice job!

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  2. Nicely done. Yes, I'm watching the e-minis...indicators show a retrace this evening...not sure if this will get up that high, but certainly could if gdp is good. The President downplayed this today.

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  3. The $BPSPX is now up at 72.60
    This was the one "fly in the ointment" for the Bears 2 weeks ago.
    :)

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  4. The leader, $NDX, hit the 50% fib and the ultimate downtrend line from the top. No where else to go.

    Get out the fork and the parachute.

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