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Thursday, July 30, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 30 July (Alt added)

The e-mini chart was added as an Alternate count.


UPDATE: 5:17 PM I added an alternate count using the e-minis. It would be one last squeaker to a new high.

The waves count nicely as complete for Minor Blue A. The sub waves since the 996 high are impulsive down (yet they only form a nice zigzag at the moment - need more down to confirm this isn't just a last corrective pullback before a squeaker high). The upper trend line was hit perfectly. 1000 was not hit (expected!) yet and the old gap from 1007-1001 or so remains. Negative divergence on the daily, a first for this up rally and expected at the top. VIX remains elevated and looks actually ready to move higher.
Bullish sentiment is challenging P2 rally high.


So Minor B pullback is imminent and I believe has already started. I'll be looking at support levels and such but eventually I expect the 950 area to be reached in a major back test of support. The 38% Fib retrace is at about 948.

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