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Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 8 July




Primary count: Red Intermediate (X) finished at today's low. Traced a double ZZ from 956 to 869. Final zigzag rally to P2 peak is starting.

Alternate: Some bouncing and bumping down to the 820's to fulfill the H&S break target. And then I'll have to see what the hecks going on and reevaluate everything to date.

Ok so what proof do I have that red (X) formed today? Probably not enough. The waves fit at least. The VIX formed a shooting star. $BPSPX is now at 17.34 and is as low as the March 666 low.

Thats about it.

I am sticking with my call for a triple ZZ to P2 peak. The market may squeak down one more time(If I have these final subwaves not correct), but 864 or so should hold. A triple ZZ to P2 peak would be hard to do if the market started in the 820's or even lower. Then you must expect a BIGGER final zigzag to take out the 956 high.
So yeah. I'm a rogue wavist out on a limb right now. If the 820's are coming soon, then I'd would be more leaning on that P2 peaked at 956.

24 comments:

  1. U are reading that vix the same as I I believe.

    vix 28: short the hell out of the the market

    vix where it is NOW...I think the market has a tiny end of the week BOUNCE here left in it...

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  2. Dano any primary count taking P2 to a new peak I will lean towards......this is a rigged market and EW is supposed to be able to incorporate that but GS is the market period....the gov made them the market so they will extend P2 to the maximum to prevent the 120 year cycle end

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  3. ANybody notice where the VIX tringle end points to? How about a VIX bottom in Ocotber with P3 beginning then? Fits like a glove.

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  4. Dan, can you repost your latest macro P2 - P3 chart? I'd be curious to see how it fits with current action.

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  5. I don't think the market will see much below the 870s either. Like you said if this is (i) that is another story but why would that happen in the first place? This wave would be out of proportion.

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  6. 1.612 of W wave would indicate a 860 low. So maybe there is a 5th wave left to take us to that area. However, the market is so overlsold that a bounce should come tomorrow.

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  7. $BPINDU and $BPCOMPQ are still extremely high (70 and 60 respectively). $BPSPX is at 48, similar to early January levels.

    According to weekly charts - especially stochastics in the 70-80 range, we have just STARTED correcting...and the weekly (14,3) stochastics - in the last 2 years of this bear market, have never recrossed on themselves once the correction started.

    For the record, and I've studied over 100,000 charts of classical T/A, the probability of P2 pushing to a new high is probably < 10%.
    This count is NOT supported by classical T/A.

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  8. I see a bounce from the wave structure that began downward Jul 2nd. A small bounce that is a W2 minor counter trend to about 900 or so. After that, its lights out continuing the wave count that began Jun 12th. Next stop 819 or 755...

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  9. William tell that to the GS quant model......maybe you can help them load their software tonight for tomorrows....algo ....they will extend P2 as they see fit......and...I am sure your EW has been spot on for the past 2months...after GS is through with P2 let us know how you did......

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  10. And william note that Dano is smart enough to keep his axx out of this maelstrom....he can see through EW that this is one hell uv a mess we are in and predicted before this wave began that It was going to be hell for shorts......even Dano will admit that these zig zags and triangles are just absurd.......gl with your stochs on this rigged market

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  11. $BPSPX is at 48.40, March 6th it was down at 12.50

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  12. Dan,

    Perhaps your wave (iv) pink may actually still be in progress? I interpret the structure that forms after (iii)[870.05 low] pink as an expanded flat, which to me, is indicative of a wave 4. If so, I then have wave(iv) pink ending short of 886.48 [subwave 4 of (iii) pink] before dropping back down to complete wave (v) pink somewhere below 869.

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  13. Hi. How would you compare SPX nad DJIA, which does not seem to be complete with respect to impulsive move down from june 8th.
    zz

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  14. Anyone trying to predict this bottom will find it impossible. Only GS knows where that is with their 'secret' trading program that almost got stolen. I kind of wish it had been exposed fully so we could get those peckerheads to stop manipulating the market. it's become so blatant.

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  15. I get the feeling there is a 5th leg left in the minute count. If that's the case, we'll see 865 before we see 893.

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  16. I'm thinking we are in a D of an ABCDE bottoming somewhere around 865 but I'm also watching to see if it breaks the other way meaning no D or E


    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=20&id=p20166419598&a=162598973&listNum=12

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  17. I don't know something tells me they are gunning for the 893 late today if not tomorrow. if they did that how close to the 898 would they bring it you think?

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  18. maxcherry
    Can you post a chart of your count from the March low? I like your count from the recent high.

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  19. obe, here's my count from march, Dan doesn't like the "3" and I'm not real happy with it either
    but the "3" is .62 of "1" and "5" is shorter than 3, monday is the 89th day from march 6th which is something i'm following

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&st=2009-03-06&en=2009-07-20&id=p77961790661&a=166391089&listNum=12

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  20. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  21. obe, your welcome, thats what i'm thinking top of C sometime in early Sept. I saw another count having us still in a four I don't think thats the case I try not to look that far ahead though I might end up seeing S&P 200.

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  22. I am glad I was wrong. Now that the morning high was taken out, there is a good chance for the Fib retracement today or tomorrow.

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  23. Hi Rick,
    you sill expect market to reach 864 rater than 893 ?

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  24. Sorry Rick I did not get your last comment.
    Do you mean you expect market to go higher ?

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