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Thursday, July 9, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 9 July


A labored move off of 869 low. I have it labeled as a wave (i) up. Is it just an ABC correction of some kind? I won't argue too very hard against it. There are a few interpretations.

One thing that seems certain is that there was some kind of ending diagonal. The bullish count is that it was a wave v of (i) up. The bearish count is the ending diagonal is a wave c of (ii). The interim bearish count is that the ending diagonal was indeed a wave 5 of a 5-3-5 zizgag corrective and there will be more upside to backtest the H&S neckline at 894-895. So in that instance it would be wave (a) of [ii] or (ii). There are other counts to be sure.

If of course the market starts heavy impulsing big volume down smashing through 878 support in big fear moves, and then taking out 869 with conviction, then, well, I suspect the H&S will indeed look for its proper target to the 820's through next week.

The key deal for today was the SPX to finish above its 200DMA (it did barely) and also 878 major support (it did). Now the bulls have a LOAD of work cut out for them. The market is in a precarious position and so far the bounce is of the dead cat variety I must admit.

P2 needs upside surprise. Big time. Like William said in comments last night, the market has about a 10% chance, technically, of maintaining support and moving up to a new P2 peak eventually.

So the cards are stacked heavily in favor of the bears technically right now, I won't try and kid anyone including myself. Even the waves can be shown to be on the bears' side. All it takes is a few more impulse patterns down and a larger EW impulse structure will emerge.

27 comments:

  1. dan, i think you've nailed it with your primary, bud. i've been watching and waiting for 890s all day. we shoot zoom down from there possibly on monday. i'm expecting red all next week

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  2. We all are becoming bears, I'm short overnight for a change.

    What's going on with the free stockchart guys...they are all accusing people of stealing each others work. You should know this before some knucklehead throws an insult your way...

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3287600&cmd=show%5Bs168768288%5D&disp=P

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3036564

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  3. I would think most any good EW chartist would have mapped today's high as an ending diagonal.

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  4. The battle as to the direction continues. Where are we going?
    http://www.bostonwealth.net/2009/07/09/spx-500-...

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  5. very excited about the next 2-3 trading days...we may get the clarity we're looking for.

    you're right Dan, bulls need a big push / big surprise here...will GS earnings on tuesday help the bulls ??...hmm..

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  6. GS earnings are meaningless. Cut the crap you sound paranoid like kil!

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  7. all the banks earnings are cooked in. what matter is forward looking statements. and do tell what are they going to make money on now. the money printing machine is slowing down and will soon shutdown. they will have to earn it the good ol fashion way and that;s not glamorous hence the reason financials are going to roll over much more.

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  8. this is m view over the last three months:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p72548884589&a=172588006&listNum=12

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  9. Max,
    It's just a regular chart. am i missing something?

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  10. if you dont subscribe to stockcharts you cant see the count but i think you do. i tried the cut and paste myself and it worked.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p72548884589&a=172588006

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  11. the move down starting from 887.81 high yesterday is looking less impulsive and more like an abc correction. i count wave 'a' from 887.81 to 877.38. an the sideways chop currently is resembling a triangle, which to me would be indicative of a 'b' wave. wave 'c' will then take us to approx 875 (c=.618xa) or 870 (c=a). the question now is this entire structure down a wave ii or wave b? if its a wave b, then c takes us to approx 895. if its a wave ii then we challenge 915 or so?

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  12. Grand whats your view on these 1 low at 878 A to 882.5 B makes new low at 877 C to 882 completes 2 in a 3 down now


    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=1&yr=0&mn=0&dy=3&id=p95158356345&a=172534337&listNum=12

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  13. well with that break, looks like we could b in a wave 3 down coming off what now appears to be a running flat(instead of a triangle) making a wave 2.

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  14. well with that break, looks like we could b in a wave 3 down coming off what now appears to be a running flat(instead of a triangle) making a wave 2.

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  15. well with that break, looks like we could b in a wave 3 down coming off what now appears to be a running flat(instead of a triangle) making a wave 2.

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  16. hi Max,

    looks like the structure has changed since ur post but i think we are on the same page with a 3 down now. still a little unsure exactly where 3 starts but definitely looking more like a 3 now.

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  17. im counting a 3 of 3 low at 872.81, with a 4 correction up to approx 875 via a zz.

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  18. i meant a corrective 4 via a flat.

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  19. grand, i still think we move lower i posted a possible "c" up from the low but i dont think thats the case, i am looking for 865 low by monday to finish off the B correction from the 956 high that would end what i think is a ABCDE move

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  20. i think i'm liking your count max.

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  21. from a trading standpoint though i wouldn't try to play the last move (if thats the case) i'm looking to trade a rally (if one comes) and friday is always bad because i head out to the bar early

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  22. max,

    i think the bar is always a good bet. i see 865 as well. projecting with fibonacci ratios shows a nice clustering in that area.

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  23. one more possiblity is an ending diagonal for the final move to 865 which would be fitting for the entire move from 666, something you cant count or at least i can't

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=3&id=p78095734909&a=170665840&listNum=12

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  24. NO I'M WRONG IT HAS TO BE SOME FORM OF 3 WAVE NOT 5 IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LOW TODAY WAS IT I DONT THINK IT HAS TO MAKE A NEW LOW THE 5-3-5 MOVE IS THERE

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  25. max,

    not to be wishy washy but i think i will go back to my original post about the abc correction. the larger degree b is in progress (ends around 875)and i think we go to 885-895 max and then complete C lower to 865.

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  26. what do you think about this count?
    http://waveprinciple.blogspot.com/2009/07/spx-7-10-2009-one-alternative-view.html

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