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Wednesday, July 1, 2009

Ellliott Wave Update ~ 1 July



Its a tough read at the moment. I knew this moment in time would come. When the market is tracing complex WXY waves of some sort with multiple subwave complexities.

So today's top could be a b wave peak of some kind today. Or the official end of a Minor Blue X wave.

Or it could be a part of a [b] wave in a running triangle and tomorrow is a new high yet again Recall the correction of most of April where the market drifted sideways and chopped up in a running triangle before breaking out to the upside of 875. Same could be happening here except with the 950-955 level. The final Minor blue Y wave of an WXY correction from 956 peak could take that form.

You might call it a wave 5 move on the NASDAQ and SPX but the subwaves are terrible for that to be the case. Also the DOW certainly is not a 5 wave move up from its low.

So the whole thing rather stinks. However falling back on the technicals, there is now negative RSI divergence on the hourly charts. This is confirmed by the ROC, MACD and CCI indicators. The e-minis show even more negative divergence, all hours. I don't think today's downward slant after the early peak relieved the situation enough.

But to be honest, I have no good read on the short term waves worth getting excited over. So we'll just have to wait for it to resolve.

As a side note the DOW is finally ready to have its "golden cross" moment of the 50/200 crossover, the last of the indexes to do so. That move often produces an initial bearish move. Then a bull move to recover the situation much like the SPX did last week.

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