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Thursday, July 16, 2009

Grand Supercycle Revisited


The long term NASDAQ chart is one reason I trust in calling for a P3 wave of extreme size. I ask one question: If the NASDAQ gets crushed to 500, what do you think will happen to the DOW and SPX?

The situation (debt) is impossible to maintain. If interest rates go up to even to half of what they were 30 years ago, the US will go into default I am pretty certain. (unless they pull in the spending reins and let it all fall!)

$500B in interest alone this year (or maybe next - its skyrocketing quickly). Its surreal.

At the rate we are headed, we'll be paying $1T a year in interest. Insanity. Can we do it? Wake up people! All Ponzi schemes collapse in a horrible mess without fail! And they collapse rather quickly.

P3 is coming. We are not sure when. But it is coming.

49 comments:

  1. Great chart Dan!
    I also think P3 is coming soon. The Vix is telling the story.

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  2. I agree with you Dan. Honestly, I think something big is coming as the large H&S pattern break down.

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  3. Dan - I think Nasdaq should outperform SPX/DOW simply because tech companies on average have more cash on hand. In deflationary spiral, cash is king. So If those are you estimates of where NASDAQ is heading in P3, it does not bode well for SPX/DOW at all. SPX breaks 200? I was thinking all in SPX around 200-300.

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  4. Nice chart Dan. Lets not forget the serious caca that SuperCycle C wave down will cause, almost surely lower than where A is heading even if the whole SuperCycle plays out as a Flat.

    I know its a long way away but still! SuperCycle A doesn't seem that far either, I know its only estimation but the form looks good and shows 2014.

    Heres a question, what form did GrandSuperCycle 2 take?

    Due to alteration, this might give us some idea what to expect in GSC4.

    Cheers

    Dave

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  5. As a beginner, I find posts like this really useful in my quest to make money in the stock market. Lately I've been following the tips given from the newsletter on www.theotcstockmarket.com and have been making pretty good trades consistantly. Just my 2c!

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  6. Hey Dan,

    Could you elaborate on the "180 degree turn" from Kenny now that he thinks P1, P2 etc are bogus?

    If this is just an ABC bear market, then what to think of the period between 2000-2007?

    M;aybe you could do a long term chart this weekend? Would really appreciate it since I consider you one of the best EW analysts... you should be working at EWI :D

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  7. Dave S, I think Supercycle C, if this scenario plays out should be no concern to us...I mean if Cycle C finishes by 2013 for example, if it were a flat like you state that would be a hell of a bull market lasting many many years...

    Super Cycle C probably would come in about 25 years from now? I think that's too far out to even think about it at this time...

    Regards

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  8. I agree 100% BUT manipulation will hold it up longer than people think. GS and the banks control the equity side and big Ben is handling the $ and bond markets. They will work together to keep this thing afloat as long as possible. "they" have allowed GS and others to remove liquidity from the market as sort of a circuit breaker for now. If "they" don't buy, then who the hell do you sell to? I am sure you remember my "external factor" argument for the great fall (P3). I still thing it will take something out of "their" control to bring it down. When it does happen it will be impulsive as all hell and they will all head for the gates at once. the market will be closed during hrs at least twice IMO. I appreciate your discussion with K and whish the two of you would have more.

    Great work as always and thanks for all of your hard work.

    Shanky

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  9. I don't know if it's manipulation or just too many products to short the market leading to an eventual rally. Any scenario is possible you just can't be complacent , the market wont allow it. Here is a chart of the Nikkie from 1985 the melt down was always the next wave


    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NIKK&p=W&st=1985-05-06&id=p63802831831&a=167229476&listNum=33

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  10. This is a few weeks old but another view is that we stay generally in the channel as in the 2000-2003 "A wave," and that does not leave much time to finish a lot of P waves. Thus, we may be finishing P4 and starting P5.
    SEE THIS.

    If not, why not?

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  11. looks like minute wave iv is tracing out a zigzag. 5 subwaves for sub 'a' of minute iv so far

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  12. seems like the market still have some juice to push it higher

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  13. WaveTrader,

    If you see the first 5 wave down from yesterday's high, then we might have an expanded flat for sub b right now, as there shows an inverted H&S on the 1 minute.

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  14. Schweizer, that was my original count but time relationships seem to point to 3/06/09 as 5 down

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p00607519363&a=172629680&listNum=24

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  15. this is a stretch but projecting with fib, i'm showing a fib cluster at 928 with the structure thus far, which i believe may be indicating where minuette wave iii touches down. not sure what all that means yet, but i'm gonna take a stab and say overall minute wave iv ends near 906-910. this is getting way ahead now, but i'm keeping that level in mind. it can all turn on a dime of course as the structure plays out.

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  16. and if this projection is correct, the move up right now (from 934.65 low) is a minuette wave ii, with iii, iv and v to come. but again, this is getting way ahead. let's see what happens.

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  17. Wavetrader, what wave are we in? becuase i'm a bit confuse by this up move

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  18. my previous post:

    "looks like minute wave iv is tracing out a zigzag. 5 subwaves for sub 'a' of minute iv so far"

    ..should be changed to "looks like minute wave iv is tracing out a zigzag. 5 subwaves at subminuette degree so far

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  19. dave, if my count is right (and i stress this is still early to tell) i'm thinking the up move from 934.65 is a minuette wave ii. so i am looking for iii, iv and v to come to complete wave 'a' of minute iv.

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  20. and something else to consider. this move so far has broken below (will break below) the 2-4 lower channel line....

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  21. i see 935 low as A , 940+ as B, and 930 something as C for a 4th wave low, but i cant keep up with you guys

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  22. a break of 2-4 line at minuette degree

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  23. max, i should add that the fib cluster at 928 could also mean the same thing as what your seeing. so i should correct myself and say, that is the first level to keep an eye on. if we break below that convincingly (ewi likes to use this word) then maybe 906-910 will mean something.

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  25. ok, either minuette 'c' is forming or minuette wave iii. starting from 940.33. lets see what it is.

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  26. WaveTrader, what's your downside target if it's a minuette 'c'?

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  27. WaveTrader,

    I'm more inclined to think that this minute iv is going to either take a few days to play out, or we get a drop towards 912-917. The daily indicators are near overbought already from our recent rally.

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  28. plato, in line with max. if it is a minuette 'c'; c=a= approx 931.

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  29. onechi, i wouldn't disagree with you on the timeframe. this would certainly be the case IF the count at this time is a minuette i, ii, iii, iv and v developing because that would only make for wave 'a' of minute iv. time will tell :)

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  30. WaveTrader,

    I think I have to toss in another scenario just to be 'Dan like' as I want to consider all scenarios.

    this ABC down could actually be Sub Minuette ii Minuette (v)

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  31. onechi,

    always good to look at alternatives. the only thing i would question on that would be what do you consider as minuette (i)'s length?

    i have 872.81-884.80 minuette (i). if i measure that length, minuette (v) as of yesterday is already 1.618 of (i) and that is using 929.66 as the start of (v).

    so i would say it is less probable, but not impossible because (v) can extend as well even though (iii) already has.

    ew principle usually has wave 1 and 5 equal when 3 extends, but again, sometimes 3 and 5 can both extend but less likely.

    still good to be looking for alternate counts so as not to be caught off guard. good job

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  33. Looks like a Contracting triangle again? Wow

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  34. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  35. well its looking more like an abc for minute wave iv, because wave b is starting to look like a triangle. we shall see. or flat.

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  36. 928 is certainly looking like an end for this abc (makes sense because the previous iv of lower degree). the question is will it turn into a double zz to push lower than 928..........

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  37. why many comments have been deleted? I'd like to read ALL comments, good or bad. If you only show good comments, how can you improve?

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  38. I think a commentor should feel free to remove it if they want. After all it is "their" comment, not yours. Criticizing someone is only going to stifle them.

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  39. onechi,

    i wonder if this is playing out: your previous comment"
    I think I have to toss in another scenario just to be 'Dan like' as I want to consider all scenarios.

    this ABC down could actually be Sub Minuette ii Minuette (v)"

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  40. or minute wave iv is turning out to be one big flat. 'a' completed at 934.65 and 'b' in progress now.

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  41. as the wave reveals itself further, i'm counting either an abc, with 'a' complete, 'b' a flat and 'c' should impulse lower OR minuette i and ii complete, with minuette iii in progress (start on 941.89)

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  42. Over 300 points gain in 3 days in the market, can we go higher on Monday?

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  43. End of day moves make me so confuse

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  44. mandy, we still need minute wave v to complete so i believe we can go higher or possibly minute v truncates because minute iii was such a monster.

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  45. I think IV already finish(triangle) and the pop is V. Wave I finished.

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  46. I agree with you Dave. Wave II didn't retrace much either and it just "feels" like it's going to make a very hard run upwards.

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