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Friday, July 10, 2009

Intraday Squiggles


Home from work early today. Had some free time, charted the squiggles intraday. Looks like some kind of triangle action today early. This triangle can really only be a b wave of an ABC (zigzag). At least thats what it looks like so far.

That would imply the the move from 887 down to 872 was corrective in nature and now the push is going higher. Perhaps a test of the big H&S neckline likely Monday at 893ish or so.

The emini chart shows the market is trying to challenge a channel breakout. I drew 2 channels because you cannot be sure where it really is. A channel breakout is a sign the down move may be temporary over and, at the least, a corrective up is underway.

17 comments:

  1. This was a confusing week. But it does seem that the next move will be to 893. I am long 100% right now.

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  2. Dan and all others,

    What do you think of this as a possible count?

    http://waveprinciple.blogspot.com/2009/07/spx-7-10-2009-one-alternative-view.html

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  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  4. That's very interesting, grand. After reading STU, Neely, and my cycle guy's info I'd say that your chart is quite plausible.

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  5. Thanks for taking a look Michael. I guess we will have to see what happens. Though I sketched out a contracting triangle, I am assuming it may also turn into an expanding one to accommodate a move higher to the 890s and no further.

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  6. Grand, the chart does look possible. The only thing is that we haven't had a proper Fib retracement yet so I personally would favor a move up to at least 893 first. I guess we'll be able to tell by Monday if the C wave gets truncated. Tehnically speaking, everything points to a bounce sooner than later.

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  7. EWT, Thank you for your feedback. I have certainly wondered about the retracement as well. We shall see what plays out Monday.

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  8. >we haven't had a proper Fib retracement

    I kept telling myself something similar during the run-up right before the election. The market happily remained overbought for days.

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  9. Grand, I've seen your charts too and the triangular pattern is a possible alternative to a zigzag (with a target of 891 (+/-)). The market will tell us on Monday. Richard

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  10. definitely going to retest 893 IMO. we've been down to long. as someone posted this older chart a while back

    http://i44.tinypic.com/2wedz0z.jpg

    you trace where we have gone since this chart(end of june) we should move back toward mid 890's before heading back down. I know we don't talk fundamentals on this site but nothing has changed fundamentally so I expect this channel to hold. This would follow what some believe. drop to low 800's before moving back up toward the top of this channel which by then will late july/early august will be no higher than 870. then we go back down. I really don't see us getting out of this channel until the market has created a true bottom and the fundamentals are in place for a true turnaround. I apologize if this is not the site to post these thoughts.

    aaron

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  11. Rick, Dan

    if we reach ie 890/893 on Monday do you see chances for more upside or do you see it as a good level to load shorts ?

    appreciate your thoughts

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  12. This "Bear Market Channel" chart is a great reminder for all of us!

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  13. Thanks for the feedback all. As I mentioned in a previous comment, I am new to EW and appreciate the experience and views on this blog.

    One other option I didn't label on the charts was the possible formation of an expanding triangle. Since it is still early in the formation, this is also another alternative that could lead to 890-900 (I believe EW has this as a max potential if prices bounce higher). Dan thanks again for all your hard work.

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  14. I will say a zigzag to 890 is my preferred count:

    http://waveprinciple.blogspot.com/2009/07/spx-preferred-count.html

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  15. you mean something like this?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=1&yr=0&mn=0&dy=3&id=p02181150717&a=172534337&listNum=12

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  16. Alex, 893 would be a good level but at 914 would be excellent as you can place your stops tight.

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  17. thks Rick
    my only concern in waiting for 914 is that given current bearish mood we might not get to this thus and miss opportunity to short the market.
    What do you think ?

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