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Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Major Bearline Breakout?

113 comments:

  1. Hi Dan,

    Thanks again for your charts and comments.

    If you had to guess at present, do you think we pull back or continue rallying Thursday and Friday? (If you don't want to guess, please ignore this question.) Cheers.

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  2. Futures are slinking back.

    A pullback is in order. A backtest of 912-914 area wouldn't be out of the question. Even a backtest of the H&S neckline is not unnormal for a deeper wave [ii].

    Its s schizo market right now thats for sure.

    The CIT bankruptcy thing is a wildcard.

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  3. PS - Its OPEX Friday.

    Also the VIX steadily went up today which is near term bearish. I'd forgot to mention that.

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  4. From Crawford Perspectives:

    For this technical reason, and for the astronomic reason of the approaching powerful Solar Eclipse, we will reverse our Long positions to SHORT positions on or before the market’s close on Friday July 17; closing out before only if our current Stoploss points are activated earlier.

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  5. and Crawford is probably right. Dollar looks like it has finished wave 3 of 3 and there is only one minor wave left. this 3 of 3 is part of this minor wave. sorry EWI is wrong. this is the last wave of this rally

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  6. did you guys check out kenny's post?

    This is absolutely frightening to me (as a bear).
    click on kenny's technical analysis blog to the left and read his latest about the relationship between the $ and the SPX. Seems he has SPX at 975 or higher in a few trading days!

    Personally I can't see the dollar going down much further as core inflation is not up much. could be other countries shying away from the $ already. I know that timmy's trip to china etc was to beg them to keep buying our treasuries. I hope it worked.

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  7. I meant as a bear b/c I am short and would like to see retest of 869 and hit 845 before continuing up.

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  8. Aaron, here is a daily chert with an inverted dollar there is a close relationship for now,
    this is classic John Murphy
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$ONE:$USD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p34931204826&a=172924396&listNum=37

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  9. A falling dollar isn't always a good thing (oil to dollar chart )


    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p84997525796&a=173072451&listNum=37

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  10. i think minute wave 3 just completed at 934.31. apparently there was a little left to go. i believe we should now be seeing minute wave 4 correcting

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  11. Aaron a this point it seems 975 is more likely than 869. I am short (at this particular wave) but in and out all the time as we are now in an uptrend that can take us to 970.

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  12. Hi EWT,

    What's your downside target for the S&P? So far, today's pullback is only about 3 points -- pretty shallow.

    Thanks & GL2U.

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  13. Hard to say. Depends on the count.. I see an abc then an x and then a (1) and current b (2). If this is wave 2 (if it peaked at 932) then I am guesstimating 915-917 for this particular intermediate wave which could be a 4 or an A.

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  14. Btw point of validation 927.45. If the high is broken again, I would redo the count.

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  15. it stand corrected. it looks like it is actually a minuette wave 4 triangle, with minuette 5 left to go and the end on minute wave 3. then we can see minute wave 4 down.

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  16. ewt,

    u think this will only be a double zz for wave 4?

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  17. Hi grand, what is your opinion of this.
    starting 5 of 3 now

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=6&id=p50859231834&a=173089253&listNum=12

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  18. hi max,

    i think this was previously brought up. i cannot view ur charts (i think u guys said something about being a stockcharts member?).

    i'd love to see it though. thx

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  19. how many think this is still a minuette wave 4, then minuette 5, thus completing minute wave 3 and then we get our minute wave 4 pullback?

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  20. unless this turns into a triple three, i think proportionately this is at the minuette degree imho

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  21. On a 15 minute chart I have a 4th wave triangle I think it's in wave 3 with a top coming in high 930's to 940 for a wave 5 of 3 high. All starting for the July 13th low as start of 1 up.

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  22. max,

    the wave 3 u list above is the same as wave c of the 4th wave triangle right?

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  23. Max, you are very bullish. I agree with Dan that besides the TA, the sentiment plays a big part of the market. CIT's bankruptcy will affect millions of people. Market was up huge based on so so good news which is not entirely justified. I say that we shall pull back before another healthy run up. I am all for Dan's prediction 912-914.

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  24. Time to fire the Feds in U.S. Almost of all the Feds in U.S. came from Goldman Sach. Ben Bernanke lied to the Congress that he has not threatened Bank Of America to buy Merrill Lynch. Today Henry Paulson finally admitted to the Congress that indeed he did threaten BAC to buy Merrill Lynch or else the head of the BAC CEO will roll. They do nothing but misuse their power and manipulate the market.

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  25. max, i just readjusted my trend channel and see a wave 5 or minute 3 at around 940 as well.

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  26. your confusing me (which is easy) i have wave 3 of 3 top at 933.95 on weds. at 3.10pm from there it looks like some form of triangle which would be a 4th wave all part of a 3 from 895 tues 10.30 or so

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  27. max,

    i'm confused myself (which is much easier!). seriously, the clarification on your count there is what i'm seeing as well.

    i think this should be the same thing:

    http://waveprinciple.blogspot.com/2009/07/minute-wave-iii-not-quite-complete.html

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  28. i think the only difference (which may not matter because it should end the same way) is that for minuette wave iv, i'm labeling it a combo: a flat, wave x and now a possible triangle before it moves higher to compete minuette wave v at/around 940 or so.

    i can also see the potential for minuette wave iv as a triangle to.

    grand

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  29. Max,

    Using the 933.95 as the high of minute 3, are you seeing an Expanding flat to 928.04 an X wave to 934.31, and now a contract triangle to finish off the Triple ZZ?

    Can X waves make new highs?

    The other scenario I can see is an Expanding Flat to 928.04 to then rally to 933.95 to finish up Minute 3, and now we have a minute 4 as a contracting triangle.

    Comments anyone?

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  30. here comes wave e of the triangle

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  31. We also have Housing news today in correlation to the wave structure.

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  32. onechionly,

    i see the same thing

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  33. here's an updated look:

    http://waveprinciple.blogspot.com/2009/07/finishing-up-minuette-wave-iv.html

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  34. grand, yes that is somewhat what i'm seeing at least the up coming

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  35. WaveTrader,

    If our analysis is correct. If minute 5= minute 1 (888 - 869 = 19). Minute 5 should take us near the 956, where the TA traders will probably see a double top.

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  36. if this is wave 'e' completing near 929.88, i have a minuette wave v = minuette wave i at approx 942. that would place minuette wave v right in the center of the channel to complete minute wave iii.

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  37. here we go. lets see where it ends.

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  38. onechi,

    if ur right on the double top, that may support my other thesis:

    http://waveprinciple.blogspot.com/2009/07/one-large-flat.html

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  39. OneChiOnly, in keeping with the 15min chart it looks like abcde with "a" starting at todays high a closeR look on a 1 min from todays high ABC down ending at 11:30 then 5 up 3 down which might be 1,2

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  40. Max,

    I'm not entirely sure what your count looks like do you have a chart? If ABC ended at 11:30 then the ABC did not achieve a new low because C was higher than A. Either way, we agree on direction is up.

    Wavetrader,

    This bounce off E wave's low looks like a dead cat bounce quoting dan here. We might get a double ZZ for E.

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  41. wavetrender when do you see all this happening?
    to me it looks as if we're trading sideways and might end down today?

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  42. looks like e is complete. up to minuette v to complete minute iii

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  43. aaron, this is grand. at this rate, i would suspect down would be the direction to form minute wave iv. how long it would take, im not too sure. we could end the day with minute wave iv in progress or be close to completing it before minute wave v up starts?

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  44. i dont know what chart sys. you guys have
    this is real time from quote.com
    5 waves from the top
    http://www.quote.com/us/stocks/chart.action?s=%24SPX&chartUi.period=V&chartUi.bardensity=HIGH&chartUi.bartype=LINE&chartUi.size=620x300&chartUi.minutes=1

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  45. You wave guys nailed it again. That's why I like to follow you.

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  47. Count just changed. We could be in a 3 minuette wave which stops me out of my 933 position.

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  48. EWT, wouldn't the triangle make this last push up minuuette 5? It has already achieved a new high.

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  49. max,

    just had a chance to look at your count:"OneChiOnly, in keeping with the 15min chart it looks like abcde with "a" starting at todays high a closeR look on a 1 min from todays high ABC down ending at 11:30 then 5 up 3 down which might be 1,2"

    if ur still maintaining this view. was the breakout '3' for you? a very extended on at that.

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  50. one chi, i think ewt's count correlates with max's: "OneChiOnly, in keeping with the 15min chart it looks like abcde with "a" starting at todays high a closeR look on a 1 min from todays high ABC down ending at 11:30 then 5 up 3 down which might be 1,2".

    i'm seeing this as a valid view as well. i think in the end, this may get us to the same level regardless.

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  51. WaveTrader,

    Thank you for clarifying, thats the beauty of EW, two counts, same direction.

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  52. ewt, is that minuette 3 of minute 5 that u see?

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  53. I see a double Z and then what seems like a 5 wave structure up. The triangle breakout occurred at 932.

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  56. WT, I see the minuette but I am not sure what the overall count is at this moment. I've seen several counts and I thought we were done done with 5 yesterday.

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  57. wavetrader you see a top at 948? I am assuming next week?

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  58. im sorry folks. this real time stuff is crazy as u know. i have to stick with the original 940ish top for now to complete minute iii. i will post a chart if i can. aaron, i can see it hitting this today.

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  59. ok, without sounding too confusing: whether this setting up the top for minute v or minute iii, i see a top between 940-948. that is the most probable level by my count (for what it's worth!)

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  61. today! wow. thats a bold statement.
    would have been one heck of a 4 days.

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  63. 5 of 3 should be done soon. IV is coming end of today or friday.

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  64. Wavetrader, in my wave 3 946 is 1.618 of 1 off the july 13 low most counts have 1 a day earlier in my view , july 13 all the european markets made new lows before reversing as well as futures. i think it ended an ABCDE (were E did not make a new low) wedge, which the action of the last 2 days seem to confirm

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  65. looks like we're seeing some neg divergence (rsi)at 3-60min timeframes.

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  66. the trend of this up move is too steep.

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  67. It does seem like it will top 940-945 when the structure is complete.

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  68. We're on wave 3, it's the trust wave. That's why I got out at the break out of my short. But I am getting the same position back when this is done.

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  69. 945 is my final target for 5 of 3. The IV is going to be very nasty

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  71. so far looking about right. i have this final push near centerline of my channel.

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  73. If market close below 940, it can still gap up to 945-948 tomorrow and form an Evening doji.

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  74. Here is my chart for what's going on:

    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_2IV2qZlbgks/Sl95UNVL38I/AAAAAAAAAGE/mm7W7iLCVSw/s1600-h/chart.jpg

    Or just go to

    http://elliotwavetrader1.blogspot.com/

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  76. seasonal pattern for July

    http://www.dogsofthedow.com/moncyc-jul.htm

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  77. I think we are in 3 of 5 of III

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  78. i have 4 of minuette v of minute iii now. will be interesting to see how the tech earnings release will affect this at the close. if minute iv or minor 2 requires a pullback, are we looking at a disappointment?

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  79. goog said they expect small gain, but I'll will very careful here.

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  80. expanded flat for wave 4 of minuette v of minute iii?

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  81. nope, looks like possibly 5 of minuette v of minute iii now

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  82. Goog earning scare the shorts

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  83. 942.70 may be the top of either minute iii or minor 1

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  84. the ending diagonal is getting smaller...

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  88. wow, possible 5 of minuette v is extending

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  89. Squeeze the shorts. Squeeze the shorts. Squeeze......

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  90. hang in there ftlog. we're almost there!

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  91. If we go in this pace, we could see 1010 tomorrow

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  92. I see P3 coming in as early as Monday

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  94. how about 943.96 as the top for 5 of minuette 5 of minute iii??

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  95. That looks like a pretty good analysis to me.

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  96. neg. divg. on 5, 15, 30, 60 mins .... what a move

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  97. ok so where do we go from here? at this pace jeez. I assume we have some pull back coming but what is the top gonna be? 960? or higher? I assume we should test our 956 from a few weeks back.

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  98. Aaron,

    Under the Triple ZZ or Kenny's expanded flat scenario yes we should be breaking new 2009 highs. The reason for the long P2 is becaues the prices have not retrace enough so another zig zag is added until we get 3 or a Triple Zig Zag which is the most according to EWP.

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  99. aaron, not sure. by my count, if 943.96 is the top of minute wave iii, then i am expecting a pullback for minute wave iv now.

    http://waveprinciple.blogspot.com/2009/07/is-minute-wave-iii-complete.html

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  101. let's see what dan the man has to say!

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  102. looks like goog and ibm have reported good numbers. regardless of the potential for the market to go higher on that news, i would suspect our minute iv pullback would have to be due as a result of profit taking. we shall see....

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  103. Can anyone tell me what price did SPY close?

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  104. This is the most brilliant and intelligent blog among all out there! Thank you all. Love all you guys!

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