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Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Minute [iv] Triangle Squiggles (Updated 1:31 EST)




There is now stronger evidence that some kind of triangle for Minute [iv] is tracing out. A break below where I have pink (c) indicates something else is going on.

A break above the previous high of 956 where I have pink (b) likely indicates that Minute [v] is heading toward its peak.

Triangles can take time and labeling them early often occurs. Just look at the subwave patterns. The subwaves usually are zigzags or some complex variation of.

50 comments:

  1. looks like either minute 5 or an exp flat?

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  2. dan do u have a count if this is minute 5? thx!

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  3. EWT, I reversed long and calculated the same top-end target for futures. I'm assuming that cash could break 70.

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  4. ewt and michael. is this what u guys are seeing? i have minute iv ending yesterday at 943.22. if min v = min i show it at 961 and 973 if 1.618x min i

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  5. It seems V end as a double top

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  6. i guess if this is still a min iv tri or if it is min v, i still have v topping out near the same levels based on those relationships to min i.

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  7. Thanks DE. Well done as always.

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  8. Wave Trader, given the length of [1] I would say that your numbers are correct, assuming that 943 (or higher) will wind-up being the low for minute [4]. As a result, I do not see a double top, but rather a new high.

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  9. Wags why u still here? go to another blog...

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  10. Wags94596 is not welcome here. Just LEAVE.

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  11. Wags, no one appreciate your feedback on this blog!

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  12. I think an ending diagonal is more likely.

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  13. JayD, I simply acknowledged the fact that "WaveTrader" and his targets would point to NEW HIGHS.

    What "nonsense" is it that you take exception to? Please feel free to be specific.

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  14. Does it seem like min v is in? I'm seeing corrective a and b now. Granted this from my iPhone chart

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  15. Nate, its seems too spikey and tight for an ED.

    I sense a big break up and big squeeze to 972. Voluem is higher today.

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  16. Let's not turn this into a yahoo message board full of kids. We should listen to all viewpts.

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  17. Thanks WaveTrader.
    Agreed 100%
    :)

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  18. I hear you. But I would expect 949 to be broken in order for this to be a triangle, [iv] should correct the previous wave.

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  19. anyone else see an ending diagonal forming since the july 20 pm low


    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=15&st=2009-07-08&en=2009-07-25&id=p30017227131&a=173089253&listNum=12

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  20. Max yes it could be. Doesn't quite work on the e-minis though.

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  21. Dan, I might have missed a previous discussion on this . . . but is it possible that [iii] did not end until the opening of July 21st, where you currently have (b)?

    Thanks ahead of time.

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  22. I know there are some that don't place much emphasis on cyclical indicators (oscillators like stochs, rsi, etc.) but it does appear that within the current wave structure the daily oscillators are at high points beginning to roll over. This in addition to the 955-960 area being current resistance could give us our temporary corrective move down.

    http://www.hitegroup.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/ESU09-072209.jpg

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  23. being limited by my mobile chart software is anyone seeing minute v in progress with sub iv of v forming a triangle?

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  24. FTLOG, i don't put too much emphasis on stochs. problem is, they can get over 80 and stay over 80 for a long time i think they work better for a range (like wave 4) not trending (like a 3 ), back in 1996 97 had you shorted on the divergence you got your head handed to you. i do follow cycles, ask Dan, i am constanly posting charts with day counts and fib relationships included one going back to 2007 that seemed to fiT every turn (at least my count which may not be right)

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  25. If a trendline is drawn from the Oct 07 high to the May 08 peak and then extended out that gives us a potential bounce on this move up (if in-fact P2) all the way up to 1100-1150. I don't agree with this personally but we've blown through every other down trendline I can see.

    I don't think this goes well with DE's analysis which seems to have more substance but ??

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  26. We may have to throw in towel. This market seems to want to go higher and so it will.

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  27. One of the key indicators for me is the OIH. It has been THE LEADER in the markets since the March low. The correlation is simply incredible with the SPX. This index ( along with several other cyclicals like FCX, BNI, X, etc. ) are well off their intra-day lows and pushing higher today.

    It's very difficult to see the markets "rolling" over without this key indicator participating as well.

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  28. Dan,
    The book EW Principal in 'associated rules and guidelines' says,
    "Zigzags, on occasion, will cut deeply and move down into the area of the second wave of lesser degree, although this almost exclusively occurs when the zigzags are themselves second waves."

    It is on page 59 in my book which is sixth edition.

    Now current P2 is a second wave and is a zigzag so there is a possibility of this P2 getting into March-may 2008 price range which is SnP 1200 range.

    What is your opinion on that?

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  29. RB, I count it as a triple ZZ. And if that is correct, the last ZZ is playing out now (looking for A wave peak). So based on that 1200 is out of the question.

    I have a general target of upper 900's lower 1000's.

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  30. Dan,
    If we see it as one ZZ ie., 5 counts from march low to June top of 956 as A, from there to July 8 as 3 wave B and then current rally as wave C(whose 1 is underway), then it fits what I mentioned in my previous post. Isn't it?

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  31. I believe this thing has finally peaked. And I am back at being a short at 955. If there is anything left, I don't see much more upside.

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  32. not EW related but check out this chart on put/call ratio

    looks like we may have topped based on this

    $CPCI over on stockcharts.

    for some reason I can't get it to paste over here. any thoughts on this? it hasn't been this high since October 2008 and we all know what happened then.

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  33. Dan, love that 1:30 chart! Nice to have you in realtime!!!!

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  34. EWT,
    Are you going against what dan says (upper 900s or higher) or is this a short term correction?

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  35. May be one more push upward

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  36. Aaron, I'm not seeing the same stats that you are seeing with that put/call ratio from stockcharts. The CBOE shows yesterday's total p/c ratio at 0.79 with the index p/c ratio at 1.33 and the equity p/c ratio at 0.61

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  37. Dan,
    EWP book further says about second waves: "Second waves often retrace so much of wave one that most of the profits gained up to that time are eroded away by the time it ends...Investors are convinced that bear is there to stay".(It would be opposite for Bear market).

    This statement when added with my previous statement from EWP about second wave ZZs going up to second wave of one lesser degree does point to SnP going to 1200. Isn't it?(If we see P2 as one big ZZ!).

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  38. RB - In order for the scenario you want to happen to take place (and truth be told, I would also like to happen) You would have to be able to legitamittely count a 5 wave Intermediate impulse up to a top.

    No counts I have seen to date, have one like this (not to say it isnt possible but no one has found one yet that I am aware of), at least a valid one. Kenny was able to count everything up to NOW as one big impulse but the validity is unclear as it only works on some indexes. If this were true, either we are not in a Zigzag at all and in maybe wave B or C, OR it is going to be one giant Zigzag and 1200 would be taken out no problem!

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  39. Thanks Dave for your detailed response.

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  40. I think 959 was the peak of the wave that started from 869. I could be off, it might get to 969 but at this point I am comfortable assuming a larger short position. I have no idea what the intermediate scenario will be, dan is calling for higher 900's, I personally think it might go to 800-810. But I am ready to abandon position at any moment. When one gets invested in one's own long term opinions, one is bound to lose money. I follow the chart.

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  41. EWT, I think you may be right as the top of this rally. But yeah, after a B wave pullback, I see it chugging up to P2 peak in a C wave.

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  42. ewt, i have that as my count as well. 959.83 to be exact

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  43. back on a bigger box now and that wave iv of v i mentioned earlier when viewing the chart on my iphone does appear to be that, a wave iv triangle starting at 957.03 peak and ending at 953.43 low. this was around 10am-12pm pst.

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