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Wednesday, July 1, 2009

NASDAQ Squiggle Chart

Looking at the SPX 1 minute chart, I wasn't going to chart the squiggles today because there was too much muck. However looking at the NASDAQ provided a bit more clarity perhaps.

I have the move down from early peak as one 5 wave move down to a low. That would imply a retrace wave back up some Fib percentage. And then, this time, since its a 5 wave move down (at least I think it is), we should be getting more 5 wave moves down after a retrace.


Give me credit, I did not chart the squiggles yesterday as a 5 wave move down. I thought they looked like zigzags which of course is corrective in nature and would allow a new high price today to develop. And it indeed did. I didn't think a new price high today would happen, but the fact that the market peaked today was not so much a surprise to me because the bearish move yesterday didn't look like a straight-up 5 wave structure.

However today's move down does look like a straight up 5 wave structure. So this time a retrace back up to some Fib percentage should hold and another move down would be coming.

49 comments:

  1. U really think we go higher short term? (ie over the next 5 days or so?)

    ReplyDelete
  2. The overnight futures finished a nice pattern on the 5min chart.

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  3. Covered all shorts, going long at 903. Classical C wave!

    ReplyDelete
  4. I'm thinking 1 of "c"
    Max Cherry


    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=16&id=p06463116424&a=171619739&listNum=12

    ReplyDelete
  5. One observation on the action today is that if the market closes below the 50 MA, there will be more selling on Monday as that is what many people and managers do when this happens, so there would be follow thru selling. So if that is the case, maybe there will be a retracement to the 912-920 area (if 901 holds) and then we will start a 5 waves down. Pure speculation on my part at this point, but if that turns out to be the case, we will be testing 875 next week.

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  6. I got stopped out. Seems like this wave has more room to go.

    ReplyDelete
  7. From Max Cherry,
    the head and shoulders top measures to 821. Wave "A" or "1" x 1.618 measures to 822 from the 932 high. I would expect some kind of bounce monday or after hours see what wave count forms. Interesting, they just reported the NYSE will close at 4:15 "system issues".

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  8. This H&S pattern will fail as Dan said since its too obvious. Even CNBC talks about it as well... Market will never give what you are looking for...

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  9. well done Rick again
    again a very good call
    do you think we can test the 875 on monday ?
    guess at 875 it is a good level to go long ?
    what do you think ?

    ReplyDelete
  10. Market is extremely oversold, so I expect a bounce of at least 38.2% on Monday before another drop to 875

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  11. did you put your longs on or do you wait till monday with a target at 910 ?

    ReplyDelete
  12. No Economic report on Monday... so it means no no excuses for any selloff

    ReplyDelete
  13. agree on the other side see no reasons to be bullish thus believe limited downside

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  14. sorry pls read limited upside

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  15. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  16. Alex, that was another Rick that posted. I got stopped out of my long and went into a hedged position. I am looking to pick the same position I stopped out of on Monday or Tues. On the minute waves, were were in the the middle of a wave 3 down. If that pattern plays out, it should bottom at 893. It is conveniently within striking distance of 888 so there is a good change this C wave will botton somewhere in that area. A strecth to 875 would be on the extreme side, had it corrected to 912 today I would have expected 875. But now it needs to retrace first before starting whatever pattern comes next. There is a good chance the next pattern will be a 5 waves down imo and if that's the case, we'll test 875 on that one and possible even break it. We do need a correction anyway of the P2 to at least 845 so maybe it is coming fairly soon.

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  17. classic re-allocation new qtr / bad jobs numbers sell off!

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  18. CNBC is talking of the H n S? I thought Dennis Kneale was pumping the fake golden cross with the downsloping 200ma, right before thurs sell off!!

    When that doofus gets cocky-bullish....its a short!

    ReplyDelete
  19. Hello Daneric
    Do you use these rules ?
    http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Exchange/9807/Charts/SP500-Articles/EWRules.htm
    If yes can you explain me one point, or say it in other words because i don't understand it.
    Or maybe anyone else can help.

    The gross price movement of Wave 2 must be greater than either Wave 2 of Wave 1 or Wave 4 of Wave 1. The gross price movement of Wave 2 must also be greater than either Wave 2 of Wave 3 or Wave 4 of Wave 3. Wave 2 must also be greater than 61.8% of the gross movement of each of the above 4 sub-Waves.

    So i understand it in this way:
    wave (2) > 2of(1) and (2)>4of(1)
    also (2) > 2of(3) and (2)>4of(3)
    and i don't understand next sentence, because if (2) must be bigger then every subwave then it will be bigger for sure then 61,8%

    Maybe gross price movement and gross movement has a different meaning ?

    ReplyDelete
  20. i overlooked "OR", now everything is clear

    ReplyDelete
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