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Friday, July 17, 2009

Refining a P2 target

Based on trendlines and waveforms, I plotted a presumptuous P2 target and date.

Back in June I theorized P2 would continue to a new rally peak in a double zigzag and bullish sentiment would reach an ultimate extreme. I just figured P2's window was extremely limited.

I was wrong and it was too much to expect P2 to have ended so soon when P1 lasted some 17 months. I think I just wanted to be different and push the envelope. In the end, it was too much arguing a moot point for something that didn't materialize. I learned much from that. It's OK to go against the grain with your counts, but you better be right. I of course quickly switched to the backup alternate count and switched my Intermediate wave locations and went with a second (X) wave pullback.

I then theorized on many occasions and using logic, that if the market couldn't achieve a price high in a double zizgag it would then make a triple zigzag to reach a proper peak and also to satisfy time requirements. My 1930 rally chart seems to support that theme of a triple zigzag.

I also theorized that if a triple zigzag was to occur, then the start point of the third and final zigzag should NOT start at a lower spot then where the second zigzag started. So I called 869 the bottom of a second (X) wave on the day it happened

I was, I admit, doubtful, but largely stuck to my guns. After all, I was going against most technicians and even EWI and ignoring the H&S. However I was closely tracking sentiment and it looked like a good turning point was near.

So then a rally. And boy it was big. 2 strong up days of 90% (I am not confirmed that the first was 90%). And that usually marks a trend change.

So it would seem a triple ZZ is looking good for the count to p2 peak. Bullish sentiment has just started to correct. P2 should peak at a new high of bullish sentiment. That is basic EW theory not just my judgement or opinion. My $BPSPX chart shows that there is plenty of room to run up. And if a near term B wave correction comes, then that should halt the upward shot momentarily.

The Great-Great Bear trendline I show in this chart may mark the top of any rally.

I may not have it at the precise spot, only the market knows that. However a break over the smaller trendline has occurred in my opinion. That means the market is free to run to the next trendline which is really a Fib fan line.

Now lets see how Monday cooperates with all these fancy projections. I certainly have backup counts and there is a lot of bearish talk of a huge collapse next week due to post -OPEX. I don't possess a crystal ball afterall.
But hopefully this post gives a general overview and ties together what I have been tracking and talking about for a month or more and explains my previous posts and assumptions. I know I tend to shotgun a lot of stuff.


  1. Kenny and yourself are at about the same spot, just one month apart! Gotta break 956 to decide and have a small dip to buy time in your scenario. Either way this is very exciting as the patience will pay off.
    Thanks again

  2. Daneric,

    Very very good and thorough analysis,great charts,thank you

  3. can anybody comment on the 905>910 gap coming into play at AB BC transition?

  4. makes sense for the calendar as well. peak just prior to the L-day break. volume will pick up the first week of sept and then heavy volume after L-day, heavy volume down that is. 2-3x current avgs.

  5. Does anyone put any weight into the Bradley Siderograph Cycle which came in July 14/15, but may have been a day early?

    This cycle has not been very good the past couple of years, but it sure seemed to NAIL this last low!