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Friday, July 24, 2009

Some Alternate Squiggle Variations




Kenny posted a squiggle chart http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_goypolxEFd4/SmoR_3apjSI/AAAAAAAABXM/sd68dY9W33c/s1600-h/spx1min.png

It presents the up moves today as a series of "1"s and "2"s. That would imply Monday its gonna break it off in shorts early in subwave 3 type move up opening. As per EW rules, it probably counts best the way he has it because wave 3 can never be the shortest wave. But his count supposes we are on the last wave push up of Minute [v]. We may not be.

If you look at the subwaves and see the way the indexes diverged a bit between where they bottomed today and also the fact that the NASDAQ didn't make a recovery high today, it smacks of a potential (b) wave up move in a larger [a] wave flat.

The squiggles supports that thesis as there are several valid ways to construct double zigzags which means the move up from low today was corrective in nature. There may be some more upside Monday (I have this 1 minute labeled that way, or there is an equally valid way to make today as the top of a (b) wave rally (see my note on my 1 minute chart and all my ALTs and then use your EW skills to see what I'm sayin.)

So what if Thursday's high was the orthodox peak of Minor Wave A? That means the market is already in correction mode. The Minor blue B wave will of course consist of a three wave count, Minute [a], Minute [b] and Minute [c]. I have also suggested that due to the extreme bullish nature of the price action and support levels, the Minor B wave may not retrace as much as permabears would like and may take a "sideways' bias correction. Think of the 3 week mid April correction in which price traced generally sideways.

An [a] wave flat or expanded flat would be a perfect way to start a B wave sideways correction (relatively speaking). The low of this [a] wave would hold 950-959 area support likely. Then some kind of [b] wave structure would trace out and then the Minute [c] wave. Thats the theory anyways and a Minor B could take well over a week or two or more depending on how complex it traces and how much bullishness needs to bleed off.

Why might a B wave not retrace in a big bear move? Lots of reasons: 1) there are still buyers chasing the rally during the correction 2) Sellers have lost their fear 3) Technical support levels. 950 was huge resistance and now it just became huge support. Yet it should be tested. 4) Trapped shorts want out in a bad way. They are looking for an out. They'll likely settle on 950 area and take it gladly, particulalry if they doubled down or tripled down.

Anyways I threw this out there because I cannot get a good read on the squiggles today. They look like ZZ's up which means correction up. If the market opens in a bullish move gap up Monday, Kenny's count would possibly be the one. The thing about these counts is that e-minis always give key clues. So by Sunday late night, we'll probably guess the answer on exactly whats happening anyway.

Technicals are weak for Friday. Negative divergences all around. So it smells like ZZ's and a (b) wave rally which means its almost over if not already. Tick 10 day average is way high.

But P2 is all about upside surprise and setting rally records (at least recent records) and it seems to be doing that in spades. So be nimble! Everyone is guessing 1000 is gonna be hit Monday/Tuesday and right about now is when they yank it the other way a bit.

3 comments:

  1. Dan, I heard some trader said we are in Wave 1 of Bull Market. After hitting a top (let said 1014)the coming correction is Wave 2. Is it possible? Because of the monthly chart.

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  2. Eric, I expect calls for bull market will ramp up even more the higher we go.

    Thats to be expected. Thats why sentiment peaks in an extreme manner.

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