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Monday, July 13, 2009


One thing my squiggle chart suggests is that the market has more upside to come. There may be some early wave iv weakness but it should find support. If pink wave (iii) hasn't even topped just yet, then imagine pink (iv) and then pink (v) must play out. If that is indeed the case, then the SPX will hang above the H&S necline for a few days finally topping out at pink (v) which of course five pink (v) waves would make just be Minute green [i] up.

The great thing about this squiggle chart is that if a bear move down chops hard, then your looking at an (a)(b)(c) from 869 low and indeed the bears would have regained control. I show the bullish count of course.

So again, will the 869 (X) wave prove to be the low and a final summer rally to P2 peak is underway?

Its exciting either way it goes.


  1. Trading over 900 will bring back buyers and possibly create a short squeeze. It will be interesting to see how sub wave 4 behaves tomorrow. I'm wondering if sub wave 3 will extend 2.612 of 1, that would make it 903 which was support not long ago.

  2. Daneric, what level on SPX do you think P2 will peak at?

  3. The Squeeze will occur if the master has determined it to ....but the odds are the carnage on shorts will continue

  4. i think Mr. Market is about to stop thinking with his little head & shoulders and start thinking with his big head & shoulders.$SPX&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p35838895211&a=172729518&listNum=12

  5. Max, the whole move up has been on steadily declining volume. Has that usually worked out?

  6. Dont get me wrong i'm bearish but i'll trade the rallies i dont think the s&p will make a new low before it moves above 956 i think the market is following very much like 1929. The 29 low came in at 195.4 first rally to 250.80 (956 now ) 31% decline to 233.60 ( 869 for now) then a new high at 267.60 (1040ish today) it still took over year. my 1929 road map$SPX&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p31055921046&a=163800550&listNum=12

  7. i counted 5 waves up finally at 905.29. is that the end of wave c of B?

  8. I'm not married to this but i think it is possible. I'm wondering if the move to 900+ was just an op/ex move with max/pain at 900. Many of the European markets made new lows monday then rallies strong so i'm the fence$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=16&id=p06463116424&a=171619739&listNum=12

  9. Seems to be like we're still on minute wave 4.

  10. A break of these levels will indicate the next move.

  11. Rick
    futures sharply up
    guess we have our reply

  12. That should create a short squeeze tomorrow. We'll have to see if 914 breaks.

  13. ideal level to go short no ?

  14. Yes just put a tight stop. This is a bounce from the sell off. The old highs would have to be taken out to indicate otherwise.

  15. Who would have thought we'd run up so much with 13% unemployment looming. Just goes to show the power of technicals vs. fundamentals.

  16. Nothing to do with fundamentals or TA..

    Elliot Wave Trader said... July 13, 2009 2:57 PM

    Given the length of the wave from 831 to 869, this could easily retrace to 50%, 61.2% of the wave. So 900-910. However, gap support at 914 serves as the ceiling that can not be broken.

  17. EWT,
    so you think 914 should hold for tomorrow? I am looking to short around 914. I personally think we open up right at that resistance(914) and then head lower. maybe test 914 a couple times in the am again before heading lower.

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