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Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Tiny Falling Wedge Alert

Possibility it already peaked. We'll know soon.

38 comments:

  1. dan,

    what do you think of the put-call ratio over on stockcharts?

    $CPCI

    hasn't been that high since October 2008. right before the market hit the trash can. lends credit to the market has peaked in this thread.

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  2. It's even higher than october now.

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  3. It means bullish sentimnet is tarting to work its way to extremes. Also means a B wave pullback is coming shortly.

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  4. I hope pullback come soon because i'm so bearish since 930

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  5. Anyway, Dan if you can do this realtime everyday. We will be able to donation more $$ to you

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  6. dan, one minute you said we are going higher to 972, next minute you say that we are now peak at 955 and going down. Would you please be more specific? tks.

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  7. I'd think [v] would top around 961 but could fail or overthrow. looks like some kind of ending diagonal to me.

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  8. Mandy I am adjusting on the fly. I had Minute wave [iv] as an ascending triangle but I think that was a red herring. So now I am tracking the ending diagonal scenario and that has an upper limit in the lower 960's more or less.

    Regardless, this A wave rally is showing evidence that its on its last legs. I can only play what the waves are tracing.

    972 is still possible if my ascending triangle tunrs out to be correct. So I am showing both counts.

    I have no preference to either one at the moment.

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  9. And Mandy I never said anything about 955, where did you get that idea from? We already hit above 959!

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  10. This is getting REAL interesting!
    Love the real-time analysis Dan.
    :)

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  11. Real time squiggles trying to guess at the top spot of a powerful rally wave is risky business. At least from the longside.

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  12. Dan,
    I would like your opinion on why we can not see P2 as one big ZZ on daily chart and why SnP can't go much higher than 1000. Per EWP, second waves can retrace much of first waves and second waves when ZigZags can go up to second waves of one lesser degree.

    If we see P2 as big ZZ and current rally as 1 of C of this ZZ then there is potential to go much higher.

    I posted it on another post but you may not be reading it now so I am posting it here again.

    http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2009/07/minute-iv-triangle-squiggles.html#comments

    Regards
    RBharol

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  13. Dan, my target 959-962 hit today, I went short at 959, so far so good, i will cover at 962 if i'm wrong.

    TD.

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  14. I did respond to it RB. If this is just the top half of a super-large ZZ (A wave being from 666 to today's high) then I suppose you could be right.

    That would mean a retrace down under 869 would be likely coming.

    I don;t have that interpretation.

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  15. RB - See my reply in other post

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  16. I will cover if 947-950 hold.

    TD

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  17. Thanks Dan for patiently replying to my questions.
    I appreciate.


    regards
    RBharol

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  18. The recently published Investor's Intelligence Bull/Bear sentiment shows the following as of 7/22:

    Bulls: 36.7%
    Bears: 35.6%

    Literally unchanged from the previous week( 7/15 ), which is pretty amazing given the run that we have had as of late.

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  19. I think 959 was the peak at this point. I am massively short, so I better be right.

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  20. EWT, do you have a target in mind?

    TD

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  21. I'd love to see retrace to 903 but we might just get to 930. In the back of my mind I still have this 800-810 target in mind but long term blurs objectivity. The most likely correction areas are 903-935.

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  22. EWT if that was the top what is your target?
    Appreciate it. or just a ballpark.

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  23. tonite's earning may push s&p back to 960-970

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  24. My original top target was 969 which is 1.618 of X. But at this point is not looking very likely, especially if we close under 950.

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  25. HUGE tug-of-war between the shorts here in overbought stocks and portfolio managers that have underperformed during this rally and continue to place bids in the market. Wow!

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  26. Stat I read somewhere:

    Nasdaq composite being up 11 days in a row?
    It has happened 17 times since 1971.

    It went on to 12 or more days 10 of those times. Very rarely did it ever mark any kind of meaningful top, despite almost always being "Overbought" in some sense by the time recorded 11 straight up days. It usually took several weeks(if ever) to see a pullback of significance.

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  27. FYI: Goldman repays the TARP and the Federal Govt. makes 23% on its loan.
    :)

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  28. the calls and puts

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

    $CPCI

    either this is dead wrong or we topped.

    close says it's a toss up. wait until tomorrow. should be interesting.

    highest in 2 plus years.

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  29. This kind of close is very risky

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  30. Aaron, that chart of $CPCI is wrong.

    The CBOE Index Put/Call ratio for yesterday was 1.33 which is essentially neutral.

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  31. what do you guys think?

    http://waveprinciple.blogspot.com/2009/07/minute-v.html

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  32. today it says 2.23 for close.

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  33. WT, that is the count I am going by in my short position taken today. I think there is still a slight chance the chart Dan posted plays out but prices broke the channel and it might just be a backtest. But I am inclined to think is time for a big intermediate corrective wave.

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  34. i posted this earlier today and am sticking with it.If it plays out, early morning strenght to complete the ending diagonal i dont think the correction will be much, love to see the gap at 905+ filled but some gaps dont get filled (dow 01/16/91 still waiting for that one).


    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=15&st=2009-07-08&en=2009-07-25&id=p30017227131&a=173089253&listNum=12

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  35. Aaron, go here for accurate info:

    http://www.cboe.com/data/mktstat.aspx

    Scroll down 1/4 of the page.

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  36. thanks. wags. will be interesting to see the updated ratio as of today. I suspect much higher.

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  37. ewt. thx for looking. we will see if we are right.

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  38. Hi Dan:

    The ending diagonal 5th starting from 943.22 shows up far better when you include pre market and after market trade.

    Ravi

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