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Friday, July 24, 2009

VIX waves


Short term 5 minute VIX chart ended nicely in a picture perfect wave (v) ending diagonal move.

Ending diagonals, in theory, result in sharp moves up. That and a pretty good positive divergence on the hourly chart spread over many trading days should pay off.

4 comments:

  1. Dan, from looking at the big picture, i could see that we will be trading in a range from 850 to high 1100 in the next few month before given a good picture if we are in new bull market or just a bear rally. meanwhile 989 1007 or 1044 is just a little bump along the way.

    TD.

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  2. Amazing...sub 20 is the ultimate degree of comfort and will offer the largest element of surprise...a big crash is coming. Party like its 1987!

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  3. Timely charts, thanks.
    I have been trading the new ETF VXX and trying to get a grip on its moves in relation to the VIX.X. VXX does not track the spot VIX, since it holds front month and one month out contracts, so it is a bit "sluggish". Still not sure whether it is a viable means of trading VIX or not. The VXX chart only shows a falling wedge beginning 7/23.

    The 60 min VIX chart seems to correlate with the deja vu all over again idea regarding last Summer. The "feel" right now to me is so much like last Summer it is eery.

    VIX is also sitting just about on its 200MA on a weekly chart, which could provide a logical bounce point.

    You clearly put a lot of time into this, dan, and it is very much appreciated.

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  4. Beautiful beautiful charts Dan, a thousand thanks.

    I agree with Mark above - below 20 would mean the market had shrugged off the memory of all that unpleasantness in 2008 and 9. Oh Bobby, I just had the most terrible nightmare - thank goodness it was just a dream! It really does set the stage for the next wave down in the most poetic Elliott fashion...

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