Custom Search

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Did Minor B Wave Happen Weeks Ago?

The rally is obviously waning yet keeps pushing. A sector here, next day another sector. There was a 5 wave move up from yesterday's low. It simply counts best as that. A 5 wave move up usually means another 5 wave is coming after a correction. It appears we certainly corrected at the end of day and there is probably a bit more correction coming. Yet I cannot ignore a 5 wave move. If it fits as a "C' wave of some kind, then it makes sense. But its hard to do that here.

The other thing that is remarkable, and disturbing, is bullishness keeps on plugging to new highs with nary a correction. $BPSPX stayed above 80 today and squeaked a new high. A break above 1018 and a new DOW and NASDAQ high would likely tweak it even further in bullishness.

So what I am saying is that bullishness is getting really high and if it just keeps ramping up to P2 peak, then how can we account for it all in the waves? Will we get a slick B wave pullback and then a C wave lurch to a new high weeks down the road? I am not even sure about that scenario although I like that because the weekly would then show divergence perhaps on the RSI which I slightly favor.

But why would P2 end soon? Because they are singing the "recession is over" song every damn day now. There are planning and plotting recoveries yet secondary data points refutes there will be a recovery at all (just a bubble recovery) A pullback to 950 or even lower will damage prices and why would we expect them to recover?

Why not have P2 peak out right here and now?

I did this back in June if you recall. I called for a continuous ramp up of bullishness to P2 peak. but I was early (I always am). What if it is correct thinking for this move up? What if we just keep ramping up the bullishness to such a frenzy that P2 will have no choice but to finish now and the next pullback will be of the permanent variety? Thats what I figured in June, but I didn't pay attention to certain things.

Did we already have our Minor B wave?

So lets suppose the dip buyers step in and buy support yet again, prices may rise yet again in yet another 5 wave move up to a new high. And the next move up would likely break some bears in yet another squeeze.

I have a possible count that would account for that. Its an ending expanding diagonal. I guess if a rally was ever going to end that way it would be P2.

Take this chart with a grain of salt and a dash of pepper. However if we get another 5 wave move up, keep this chart in mind.

This is not my primary count, but its getting close depending on what tomorrow does. It will make some sense if we get yet more "upside surprise" Thursday, Friday or Monday.

And P2 would be over in my book if it played out.
blog comments powered by Disqus