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Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 25 August

Yesterday I showed charts as if it was the P2 top. I admit is was a bit contrarian just in case because EWI and Kenny played it straight so I figured I might as well show a possible top count so all the bases are covered. But the alternate count played out today.

So today I'll play it safe on the chart and show what could be one more possible move up to form the final Minute [v]. Roughly 1041 is the target.

My alternate count has today as the P2 top of course and that the moves down are forming a series of 1's and 2's. It was impulsing down in 5 wave moves intraday. So today may have been the top. We'll just have to see how tomorrow opens and plays out. Upper support must be maintained if there is going to be one more attempt at another peak. The whole area from 1035-1044 seems to be resistance.

However things are in a precarious state for so many charts an indexes its not even funny:

1) Dollar chart is dangerously low. If its going to pulse upwards in a wave 3 move, it needs to do it soon.

2) I show a nice count on the VIX. I have its low as ending at today's top.

3) The e-minis is about to break under their up channel from the 975 low. But that may not mean much as long as they stay sideways or above support.

So if tomorrow broke down it would be about perfect. However as Kenny shows, we may be missing the 13th and final wave up. (either 9 or 13 waves consitute an "impulse". We had 11 up so one must assume it will go to 13)

Another ominous SPX shooting star formed today. Bearish.

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