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Wednesday, September 23, 2009

The Bullish Count

No charts! Its just the same crap I show every night. Triple Intermediate zigzag to P2 peak.

I keep getting asked by many people lately for a "bullish" count (I take that as a contrarian sign). In fact they seem annoyed I don't have anything but a "P2" count or a "P3" count. Well why would I? That count is based on much longer term counts to include the start of a Grand Supercycle bull wave in 1780 or so and it ending in 2000. I'll change that when I need to. And I am far from needing to do that.

A "normal" wave 2 of any size will retrace anywhere from low end (38.2% or about 1017 SPX) to the high end (61.8%-1200 something - bah lost my chart). The 50% mark is at 1158 I think.

Even the current September rally, we are calling this a Minor C of zigzag (Z) from the early July 869 low. Within Minor C it can expand to 100% of Minor A which is about 1120.

So why would I change my count if my count shows the "flexibility" to allow a higher move? 1120 is still some 60 points away!

So yes the bullish count is that today's peak is only Minute [iii] of C and now Minute [iv] is playing out. But I don't prefer that count at the moment. That may change in a day but thats the way it works. I have a primary and a valid alternate. But bullishness is way high. To expect it to go higher on waning momentum is pushing things even for a permabull.

The bears pushed things at 670 SPX. They got burnt.

But as for now its playing out beautifully. And 1080 makes a pretty damn decent looking waveform for a top. So why wouldn't I suggest it so? All the parts and subwaves are there. Do they count and look picture perfect? No! Corrective waves never do! But they certainly count well enough.

Confirmation of a trend change? Not yet. And I don't suppose the market will make it easy for us - bull or bear.

But I am way more scared of P3 than I am of P2.

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