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Monday, September 21, 2009

Despondent Bears




Traffic is noticeably dropping on permabear sites throughout the blogosphere the last couple of days (or is it just a Monday?). I think bears are thoroughly beaten, dejected and some have even jumped in the bull bandwagon I am sure.

I however grow more excited every day. Thinking that Minute [i] (the 1039 top) may have been P2 peak excited the bears for one last time. But breaking above 1044 has crushed their spirits. Bears are no longer interested in technicals, wave patterns nor anything else. They won't short it anymore, they lost too much. But yet evidence is that we are in wave [iv] and that the top is just 5 subminuette waves away! That excites me.

(By the way I went long today - and holding - on ETFC at $1.82 - it did have a burst higher today as I suspected it might)

And still the SPX holds above upper supports. It seems inevitable that its going higher. And even I have it marked down needing one more high. But will the 5th Minute wave ever come? Reminds me of the missing 5th wave at 666 low....

But this is not a thrust out of a triangle and the waves better count as a correction back from 1074 rather than impulses. So one more upside would make for a nice wave structure indeed.

The chart I show is something I have had for quite some time. I drew the P[2] label on it many many moons ago (ok in March). Yes the P2 got tweaked as the "unbelievable" rally proceeded but in reality it is right where it is supposed to be. It has the right "look", the right feel and an exceptional 3 wave "ABC" corrective look about it.

The contrarian-contrarian statement of those who continually say, "Stocks won't go down because everyone expects them to go down" is finally losing its firepower. I mentioned a couple times in late August when the media was trumpeting that September was likely to be bad made me pause immediately that the media goons were mucking up a good bear month. And so it was...so far. September has been golden.

When October rolls around this time, it won't matter what the media presents....its gonna be an ugly month. So the contrarian-contrarian-contrarian play is that stocks do fall hard in October.

But I digress.

When permabear sites lose traffic, it is a sign. A sign that the peak is near. Sick of waves. Sick of technicals. Sick of hearing about "P2".

55 Fibonacci hourly cycles. 144 Fibonacci trading days. Take a look at sentiment. 88.2!
It will turn.

We are trudging above 28,500 feet and on oxygen. Keep focused or we shan't make it to the top and get down alive.
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