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Friday, September 4, 2009

E-mini (UPDATE 2:02)

UPDATE (2:02) Double zigzag up? The 1:1 ratio is uncanny. Do the math. That wedgeline up needs to break. Just throwing stuff up here I admit. This is how I process the squiggles everyday (if I have time to look) and always adjusting on the fly. There certainly is a bullish count in here. A series of 1's and 2's and that means more upside.

So in that sense I always try and see a valid alternate.

UPDATE (1:47) Ominous pattern move on the NASDAQ. Backtesting the big bear under wedge line. Is this a kiss goodbye?

UPDATE (12:33) Hit double Fib confluence resistance. The bulls need any potential pullback to hold support. I must admit, the SPX cash index waves do count decent as a series of 1's and 2's. But the e-minis show something else.

Next week is the key to the whole shebang.
UPDATE (12:02) Triangle breakout. It also makes a nice cup and handle.
UPDATE (11:26) looks like a small 5 wave structure down from 1008. That should mean another 5 wave structure down at least after a correction.

UPDATE (11:12) It looks like a 5 wave move up has completed. A "b" wave back toward support could be in play. The whole thing wedged so it has me wondering if that is "it". That would imply it was a C wave to 1008 in some kind of upward flat or something more complex.
You can see where support lies on this chart at multiple levels.

UPDATE (10:12): 5 waves up to "a". And now it looks like a triangle is forming for the "b". The whole pattern may turn out to be a 5-3-5 zigzag up which is corrective. That is a not a trend-breaking pattern. Its a countertrend pattern and that would imply the primary trend is down.
UPDATE 8:48: The e-minis were very volatile around the jobs report. It dipped hard, moonshot up and hit resistance and at the moment has gotten rejected back down in pretty good fashion. There is one thing you can count on around a jobs report like that is that the MM's will break a lot of stops up and down several times before all is said and done.

The e-mini chart reflects the approximate bands of resistance that the market will likely battle over today and/or Tuesday. The red line represents the SPX 1016 area. However, the yellow line may also give the market problems as that is where it is stalled at the moment I took this picture.

This is a "key" area for the markets. This is a backtest of broken key support(s). The market cannot advance obviously until it "retakes" this key support. Notice the big red down candles on Tues. It will take similar big green volume candles to retake and reestablish support. One cannot really say P2 is firmly over until this coming battle is won or lost. The technicals and wave interpretation, at this moment in time, predict the bulls will lose this battle.

This is where EWI said to "short any rise". You can bet a lot of traders came up with that on their own. The bears have gained an edge and seemingly reversed this market at the 1039 peak and now is where they must defend that downturn. I would think there are some trapped bulls who would gladly see the market come back up so they can trim a bit.

There will finally be real volume and a full contingent of big money traders back in the markets after Labor Day. Next week is where the rubber meets the road and the market will tip its hand.

I'm betting (literally) the bears win. Yet, I also realize what a bear loss will look like so I am not blinded by "permabear-itis".

Good luck today. I am off work by chance and may be posting some squiggles as we go.
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