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Friday, September 11, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 11 September (Update!)

EDIT (11:31) I actually screwed up the math as pointed out by Papa Smurf! Thanks! Redoing the math and the Fib expansion actually comes out to pretty much an exact .618, almost to the last hundredth of a point. (I had lazily used Excel for my calculations originally -- bah ! - it figures Microsoft would screw me 2 bps)

Check out the Fibonacci math on today's SPX high:

Ok you have a low of 666.79. The first prominent peak is 956.23 (One could make a very good argument that 956.23 was actually an Intermediate (A) wave peak of a 5-3-5 Primary -sized zigzag - for all intents - it does work well)

The pullback to the early July low was 869.32. Lets call that for the sake of argument an Intermediate (B) wave low.

So therefore the initial rise from 666.79 to 956.23 was exactly 289.44 points. Take 289.44 and multiply that initial rise by an expansion ratio of Fibonacci .618 and you get 178.87. (289.44 * .618)

So adding 178.87 to the intermediate (B) wave low = 869.32 + 178.87 = 1048.19

Today's high?


That's a near perfect .618 expansion ratio relationship between the major waves of this P2 rally. It would make a nice P2 high.

However the waves don't seem "finished". To have this as the high would make for an awkward count indeed. So I would hope for a small wave [iv] pullback and then a push to new highs yet again to finish off P2.

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