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Monday, September 14, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 14 September

Still no solid evidence of what the wave structure is but there are a few acceptable approaches at this point. The differences can be seen as I charted the NASDAQ and SPX in slightly differing counts to give you an idea.

Regardless the market seems to be in Minor wave C of the last push up for P2. The upward momentum is still waning and now divergences again show on the charts for the 30 and 60 minutes. Those time frame cannot be dismissed.

Yet pullbacks for now always seem to hold key supports.

I agree with Kenny in that 1060 and the weekly midpoint BB band at 1066 or so will present some problems for the S&P500. 1060 was a key "launch point" for the bull run to Oct 2007 peak.

Overall it seems there is no reason for any money manager to sell anything too early as the end-of-quarter is almost here and it has been quite profitable from early July lows of 869 to today's peak. So in that vein, September may likely end a very good green month overall even if we allow for the last week to be a bumpy one. But I'm just thinking out loud here.

I would be suspicious of any uncovered gap up from this point onward. One could suspect an exhaustion gap.

Its death by a thousand cuts for bears.
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