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Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 16 September

When you stop and look back at things, you realize the primary count really han't changed nor is there a reason to change things. My 30 minute SPX chart shows we are in Minute [iii] of Minor C and the old zaniness is back with a vengeance. You can see the typical expansion ratios and the 1.618 ratio takes us up to 1090 or so. The breakaway gap from last September was 1097-1099. The only resistance hurdle left is the DOW. It was lagging and has caught up to its previous (4) of 3 high.

The qqqq's will also be running into more resistance as well as the NASDAQ.

But otherwise we're looking for a Minute [iii] peak and then Minute [iv] pullback and then the final wave to p2 high. That would be the ideal structure. (But maybe that 5th wave up don't come.)

Sentiment is running extreme. P2 has never had any particularly deep pullbacks. In the final zigzag up, the Minor B was also a shallow pullback. Shallow pullbacks have resulted in one the sharpest bear rallies in history. What does that mean?

To me, it means once its stalls and reverses, the initial plunge could be severe. Every mad hatter running to the exits to protect their profits. This train is on a one-way track to a dead end and the brake handle is broken.

Minute [iii] of C will come to an end as do all other waves. Nothing new here.
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