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Thursday, September 24, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 24 September (Update)

UPDATE (6:20PM) Tech really dumped hard in A/H's led by RIMM. qqqq's are now making their new lows LOL. This is not good for the bulls.

Update 2: corrected the date

Downside was pretty good today on decent volume. Some quirky things were going on. Allow me to explain how I see today's price action:

1.) Banks are leading down. They dropped hard again today. The banking index is damaged.

2.) Oil dropped again and continued the decisive break of its rising wedgeline. I can see it going back to $58 support soon. Cannot say this is "bad" as cheaper energy can be spun any way you want to.

2.) The DOW curiously was "held up" and not down the same percentage in relation to the NASDAQ. When one sees the DOW wedge in unlogged scale you will see why. It simply hugged the lower trendline. I show that chart. This percentage divergence is potentially bullish for tomorrow.

3.) The markets tried desperately all day to prevent from allowing a 5th wave new low to "confirm" a 5 wave down pattern but they lost in the afternoon. All 3 indexes made new lows which is bearish because it confirms a 5 wave move to a new low. Therefore wave iv likely traced a sideways double three combination corrective pattern.

4.) The qqqq's did not however make a new low. So this could imply a bullish retrace wave back up. I am thinking the bulls challenge 1060 again at least once and levels higher if it can take 1060 back. If it cannot be done soon, then things could get real ugly for the bulls. The market is now set in motion and a fear pang has risen from a VIX low.

So I charted the squiggles in a straight up manner. And am looking for a bullish rebound (EDIT: I should say the term wave '2" rebound. Bullish sounds... misleading.)

The bottom line is that the market is on a "cusp". It has yet to really absolutely confirm a short term reversal. It has one day to save itself. It probably will and go into the weekend with the bears full of doubt.

The alternate is that we are at or near a Minute [iv] low (which I do seriously consider by the way). One thing about the sideways low price action moves today is likely a bunch of shorts piled in. It won't take much to goose it and break a bunch of stops up. Overseas markets will be telling and may effect how the US market opens.

But P3 is all about downside surprise and a break of 1044 support tomorrow would certainly be that surprise for unsuspecting bulls.

Be on your toes.
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