Custom Search

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 29 September

Should be a key day tomorrow. Tomorrow is the 144th Fibonacci trading day since the 666 low in March. Since most readers are familiar with the overall counts no need to rehash things too much but i'll review things a bit.

Today was a confirmation of a 5 wave move up from 1041 Friday low. (By the way I do not like it as a "c" wave of an expanded flat because the "a" wave would have been very tiny.

So there are 3 basic options:

1) Today's 1069 peak was Minuette (i) of Minute [v] of Minor C to P2 peak. High will occur above 1080.

2) Today's 1069 peak was a Minuette (ii) top. The subwave count would have it as an expanded flat peak .That implies P2 topped at 1080 and also implies a wave (iii) big downside tomorrow.

3) Today's peak was an "a" wave or (a) wave of a deep 5-3-5 zigzag Minuette (ii) back towards an attempt to take out 1080 top. This implies that it will fall short of 1080 and makes a high somewhere between 1069 (today's top) and 1080. It also implies a huge reversal to the downside somewhere between 1069 and 1080.

The stakes for tomorrow is the monthly closeout numbers.

As Kenny recently mentioned, a close above the 20 month MA is bullish. That mark is 1067.07

So I think option 3) above is about where I stand in my primary thinking. Maybe 1 or 2 indexes makes a new high and others don't. That would be typical.

So the direction tomorrow and breadth numbers and VIX will all be telling signs.

Bears will want a close under 1067.

blog comments powered by Disqus