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Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 30 September

Since the 1080 high, we had a goofy 5 wave (?) down to 1041 low. But even that is open to interpretation. We then had a 5 wave structure up to 1069. It could be a 'c' wave in an expanded wave (ii) flat. But since 1069 we have what is arguably best counts as zigzags intraday today. Zigzag down, zigzag up and then back to the late afternoon low.

So the waves triangulated today which suggests there is more upside coming tomorrow but only if it follows through. And the targeted upside would be between 1069 and 1080.

The other side of the equation is downside and potentially big wave (iii) downside of course. The DOW violated its Minute [i] price range.

I suppose everyone and his brother is expecting a massive sell off tomorrow. And you know when everyone has already taken their positons in the "expected" move, then the market sometimes does the opposite. So in that respect you have to respect the triangle potential. 1041 is a key support marker.

I will say this about the price action: It reminds me of the sub 750 range where prices fought going down and had several 20 points spikes. This was a sign that selling pressure was easing and bulls starting to exert control.

So the flipside is that the nasty little selloffs are signs that the "dip buyers" are fewer and farther between and eventually sellers will take over just as buyers took over sub700.

So even if the market makes a move up tomorrow, its going to come down soon enough in my opinion. Doesn't the market like to leave you hanging at the edge every single day? See it ride and hold that trendline magically?
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