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Sunday, September 20, 2009

Exxon Mobil Chart

I love this chart even if it completely wrong. It only took 25 minutes to dream up as the patterns stand out fairly well. The hardest part with Stockcharts is making the labels, its a bit of a tedious process. (I wish they would make it "EW" friendly.)

This humongous triangle of Primary? size seems to suggest that the "end" is almost near. It also appears the (E) wave has itself subdivided into a triangle which is rare.

One could make an argument that my triangle is labeled "upside down" (or not a triangle at all) and that it is ready to actually break upwards over resistance and back toward upper $70's or more.

But I like the labeling as is. The (C) wave is a nice complicated waveform that sports aninternal ascending triangle. C waves in triangles are often the complicated waves. The (D) is a simple zigzag.

Either way, its a simple EW rule that this last Minor E of Intermediate (E) cannot break above where I have the blue Minor C price high placed within the (E) triangle. So if you were to play EXXON short from here you'd simply place your stop above the C in (E).

Some technical evidence I'd like to comment on is that the bollinger bands are very tight. So something is likely to give soon. The 50/200 DMA is flattening yet they are far enoigh apart from each other so no evidence of an imminent "bullish crossover" where the 50 crosses over the 200.

And lastly high volume with a smallish candlestick pattern may suggest "churn" at the end of the pattern. The flipside is that it is building up breakout volume.

Either way, it should be fun to see how it all pans out.
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