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Friday, September 25, 2009

Print Media is Tame, Compliantly Bullish and Unaware

Finally the perfect storm. Part of Elliott Wave theory is looking for "contrarian" clues that allow one to take a position opposite of the majority of the market. In other words, contrarian signals helps one determine if its "time" to move to the other side of the trade when the opposite gets too crowded. Along with sentiment surveys and EW structure interpretations, the media is a another clue on taking a contrarian position at major turning points.

When the media splattered stories all over in late August about how stocks would fold in September I took pause and had rightful doubts about coming market moves. I had to experience it to see it that their bearishness would = bullishness for the markets. I wish I had followed my instincts more I would have made better calls and gone against the EWI grain of calling an early top when it mattered.

But now my sense is that they (media) are completely enamored with all the old bull market trappings: IPO's, Mergers and Acquisitions and "emerging market mania" gold, etc etc.

But the subwaves are subtle to the untrained eye. And the nature of the "smallish" daily losses are almost imperceptible even though the DOW dropped 258 points from a peak in less than 3 days. Remarkable they didn't notice. The indexes trace an almost invisible 5 waves down from a 1080 peak to a 1041 low in what appears to be a wave (i) move and they don't see it. The media seems to have finally thrown in their bearish views. It was a necessary development for P3 to take form which is my primary count.

Its finally become the "same old, same old" complacent stock market to the media. They have been tamed even though technically and sentimentally a slew of indicators are screaming "SELL NOW!".

Its only fitting. The print media (I don't watch CNBC) is usually wrong.

There is nothing of importance happening this weekend. There are no bearish "stories" to report nor is the media full of trepidation. Which of course means Monday may be very bearish indeed. We are coming to a juncture where a nasty little wave (iii) down breaking 1040 support will occur. Perhaps a bullish Monday first, but watch the tape carefully.

There need be no "catalyst" for P3. If you think the housing report or other such nonsense cause the markets to turn my piece here:

Elliott Waves frees oneself from the noise of the "news".
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