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Sunday, September 13, 2009

Social Mood Turns, Markets Follow (UPDATE)



UPDATE: (14 Sep) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_sjvc6baor8 And what you see in this video is not all the crowd there was. The politicians know exactly how many there were. And thats all that matters because this crowd actually votes.

I don't like discussing politics as far as left/right, or Democrat/Republican is concerned. It isn't the purpose of this blog. I do however discuss social mood in the context of Elliott Wave Theory.

The march on Washington yesterday was an obvious display of negative social mood and the crowd size was quite impressive as these pictures show. I think it caught the "authorities" off guard. What were they mad about? Obviously a wide range of topics from the health care bill to handing over tax money to crony bankers. Overall I think government intrusion in general and particulalry out-of-control government spending and the feeling people are getting screwed and not being heard.

Crowd estimates are easily in the hundreds of thousands maybe well over a million. The People are pushing back.

In the context of Elliott Wave Theory, one didn't see these protests during the Primary wave 1 decline from October 2007 to March 2009. But now near the peak of a Primary wave 2 we see social mood starting to erupt. This will not be the last march on Washington. That you can count on. And they will grow bigger. And one can easily predict that the government and big media (they will ignore reporting them as much as possible) will not be accommodating to the concerns of these protests. In fact one can easily predict that the government will dismiss or push back at these protests and cause even greater backlashes.

How can I confidently say this? EW theory wave structure predicts that Primary wave 3 down will be even greater in force than Primary wave 1 as wave 3's are usually the strongest wave in any structure. So EW theory is predicting that negative social mood will get much worse.

Its safe to say that the general political makeup of the protest crowd was a Republican/conservative/independent leaning mixture. But I also think its safe to say that the opposite side of the political spectrum is seething underneath too in social mood. Maybe not at the same types of things this crowd was mad at, but do you know any truly happy Progressives/Democrats at the moment even though all three branches of government are controlled by one party?

So the country as a whole is in the opening stages of a greater display of negative social mood. Against each other, against the government. Yet again this display is near the peak of a great rally in equities. Social mood turns first - markets will follow.

The Fed and government is powerless to control this mood. In fact the very actions of the Fed and government will help inflame this mood further. When you have the conservative half of the country leaning toward anarchy rather than the status quo, you know the gig is probably up.

I have predicted and stated many times in the past that the country is lurching, and will continue to, toward fascist tendencies. Indeed have we not already had that? The government is now heavily involved in just about every industry big and small yes? (name one they are not! - heh) Do they not determine the winners and losers? (in the end many of their "winners" will lose anyway)

Fascism appeals to a lot more people than you realize. Rather than face the great unknown a great many people lean toward having the authorities seize and force things upon society for the "greater good".

But an ironic thing is that today's government cannot even do fascism right. Some people like the government forcing society to take certain stances on certain issues but there exists other aspects of government actions (or non actions) that completely anger these same people. Some feel the government is not doing enough. So in the end you end up with pretty much 100% negative social mood. Negative toward the government, negative toward each other. It will get worse.

Do you think the Fed will just readily inflate for this "greater good"? Do you think they are unaffected by protests calling for their dismantling? For those on the hyper-inflation side of the debate, pause and think things through. The Feds are only human too. They are bankers and they have self-interest at heart. Don't you think they are nervous about whats on their books and the fact that they are technically bankrupt themselves? When even Barney Frank has suggested the FED needs an audit (even if its just talk)? The FED is affected by the same forces of social mood. In the end you can count on the banker mentality (protect thy power and money) to come to the forefront.

Bankers do not like to lead and make noise. They rather like to hide in the background and siphon quietly the wealth from the general populace in the cleverest ways they can. You don't see any reality shows about bankers do you? No, they like to remain in stealth mode. Social forces are exposing them and they will take pause. Their power derives from the fact that they control the money. But that control comes from not rocking the boat too much.

The one year anniversary of the Lehman collapse is awash in big media "narratives" this week on how the crisis unfolded and how total disaster was averted. This is a foolish narrative to take. But totally predictable in the scheme of Elliott Wave Theory. Prechter said they'd generally sound the "all clear" alarm at the peak of this Primary wave 2 rally and indeed they have.

Predictions of SPX 1200 or higher and the end of the Great Recession (in only 18 months??) and the bold speeches of relief by the "savers" (Benny B, Timmy G, and "O" come to mind) that "disaster was averted" are signs that Primary wave 2 has done its job relieving bearish sentiment. They speak in past tense as if the past never will repeat.

Yet Saturday's gathering in Washington is painting a very different narrative.

The upward momentum of the P2 rally shows solid technical and wave evidence that it is waning. Bearish sentiment has been relieved perhaps as much as it can be expected for a Supercycle wave (a) bear market. But a real underlying negative social mood from all sides of the political spectrum for lots of reasons is starting to exert itself again.


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