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Wednesday, October 28, 2009

The Bear Market P1 and P2

The daily SPX chart is an awesome Elliott wave pattern for both Primary wave 1 down and Primary wave 2 up.

The double negative daily divergence and also the weekly negative divergence are serious sell clues that are all around us and should be alerting us to the fact that P3 is likely underway.

The rising trendline has broken. The big bear line was kissed for a third time nearly perfectly. The 1099 gap was closed. Are there more bull targets? Isn't there evidence of stocks going from strong hands to weak? Even Bill Gross dumped all his crap and then announced it proudly. Smart man.

It really doesn't need to get more complicated than these 2 charts.

Will P2 make a new high? It might but in my estimation not before it experiences yet another Intermediate sized wave correction. And that correction should take, at a minimum, a few weeks. But don't count on it. The larger "ABC" look as been fulfilled for P2.

Not only does the EW pattern fit and look very nice. The technicals are now aligned with a major market top (weekly divergence can be a kiss of death)

There really is a lot of overhead paper starting to come out. And there is a lot of resistance just overhead of us.

For an immediate reversal to new P2 highs, the market is going to need at least a 10-1 volume ratio or greater up day. Perhaps tomorrow is a good reason for it to do so, but I wouldn't hang my hat on it.

But even if it did reverse magically back to 1101, say to 1105 or 1120, wouldn't you feel the need to short the damn thing again (so why would the market comply with that move?) I think 1060 is going to be very tough to retake and hold as support. Let alone, 1072-1075 and then 1096-1101.

The trend is changing. And the next primary wave down is potentially a world game-changing event.

Am I calling P2 top? Not necessarily but I'll leave my charts labeled just the way they are anyways until proven otherwise. I can see at least an intermediate-sized wave (red) correction occurring. And those take more than a few days and more than 5-6%.

I'll be looking down just as much as up, especially tomorrow as there are potential very bearish 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 counts going on and it might soon be ready to bust the DOW over the head...

P3 will produce carnage. If everyone decides they have had enough and they set the auto-bot computers to full sell mode, we could be looking at a mini-black swan or two.

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