Custom Search

Friday, October 30, 2009

The Bears are used to this Game

Don't know if its over yet, but this count works pretty well.
It may not be over, and we may not even have the wave degrees or maybe this is a series of 1-2, 1-2, but regardless, its officially a 5 wave move down off the top and thats all that matters.

Trying to work it back toward the pivot.

Bulls are trying to form the inverse head and shoulder routine with a near-term target of 1091 sometime next week likely. Its almost a foregone conclusion they will succeed huh?

If bears are serious, they need to break the bulls right here and now and today and close it under 1052. A break out of the channel and backtest will power it higher.

Battle for the channel.

One thing about that bottom yesterday was that the MACD and stochs on this chart bottomed along with prices. Usually for P2, the e-minis, all-hours, telegraphs its turns a bit more with some kind of positive divergences at these price lows. Even the 15 minute charts lacked anything.

This was also pretty much true with all the cash index charts except I think the 5 minute chart which is a pretty quick chart.

What does it mean? Well it just goes to show you don't need much divergences to turn. Which means there is still a chance this thing breaks downward today at a moment's notice.

Today is all about support/resistance and how much conviction the bulls have about pushing prices up yet again through resistance. The bears are used to this reversal game. And you know what they say about when things become a "norm" is just when it no longer works.

So this is all about if all these big pockets of "buying climaxes" were bullshit or not or if there will be a lot more. Soon they will run out of stocks to push up.

I am still looking for a close under the 20 month MA of 1052 or so today. I think there will be a fight on a Friday. Could be a choppy day.
Anyways this is posted a bit early have to go to work early, just some random thoughts.

blog comments powered by Disqus