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Thursday, October 1, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 1 October (Updated 30SPX)

UPDATE(9:30pm) updated the 30 minute SPX based on a minuette wave (iii) target low of 1014 rather than 1006. Used orthodox Minute (i) for Fib calculations.

The VIX made a nice break above the wedge. It looks like its just an opening act. Selloff first day of the quarter. 200 point down day on DJIA. SPX breaking under 1037-1041 support. Close on the low.

It all spells wave (iii) downside action and it probably has some more room to run lower before finding a bounce for Minette (iv). It would be nice to see some more crisp impulsing down for Minuette (iii) to fully develop further as it did today. The 1.618 ratio would target at 1006.55.

So the primary count is officially Minuette (iii) down of Minute [i] of Minor 1 of Intermediate (1) of Primary [3] of Cycle wave c of Supercycle wave (a) of Grand Supercycle wave IV.

Or something like that.

I show both the log and non log scale for the SPX so you can see the trend line differs a bit between them. I show both because many suppose a "backtest" of the underneath trendline could occur. But you can see we have yet to run to the lower trendline in the non (arithmetic) log scale.

As someone commented, the late price action on the low looked like it started to take out stops and accelerate at the end which is a good clue its third wave action. I suspect Europe is going to display further weakness they too ended on lows.

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