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Monday, October 12, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 12 October




Well so much to talk about, where to begin?

Wave Structure:
I still show the SPX may have one more push to make a new recovery high tomorrow but that depends on how overnight futures hold up. I still show the SPX in a Minor wave 5 of Intermediate (C) of P2. Alternate is that it will trace a Minor 4 triangle and that today was a [b] wave peak and that a correction down will occur for [c].

Divergence:
The DOW made a new intraday high, the SPX almost did yet the NASDAQ was way off.

The NASDAQ then fell harder and violated some intraday subwave patterns that the SPX and DOW did not.

DOW new high today, VIX did not make a new low.

The e-minis show a double negative divergence on hourly stochs and MACD and that usually means a correction is coming.

The NASDAQ, DOW and SPX and QQQQ's all sport negative divergences now on the weekly charts which is the first time we have had that since P2 began.

The SPX sports double negative divergence on the daily and the second divergence is severe.

I could go on but you get the picture.

Interesting factoid: Today marked the 67 trading days for (C) which now matches (A) in trading days exactly for P2.

So any hard down distribution moves of course need to have a 5 wave move at Minuette degree to form a definite Minute [i] to be able to say P2 has peaked.

Commentary: Obviously everyone is on "DOW 10000" watch. And like Mish said recently, a watched pot doesn't boil or so the saying goes. 9931 intraday high.

House. Cards. Wind.
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