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Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 13 October

EDIT: heh I probably should have waited for INTC reporting to finish. It would seem that the triangle could be a continuation but to the upside in a likely subwave [iv] of 5 of (C) . We'll know by tomorrow as a lot can happen.

I think the MM's may be yankin everyone's chain today. Couldn't close a friggin 1 point gap down on the SPX in three tries? Gimme a break heh.

Intraday squiggles look like an "ascending" formation but if you actually chart them from the 1079.46 top it best counts as a continuation triangle which means tomorrow the market should break lower.

As far as the bigger count, the move up from 1019 to 1079 may be a [b] wave in a Minor wave 4 triangle. That would imply a complex [c] wave may be tracing downward.

I show all the possibilities of what the 1079.46 top could be and I am sure there are others.

Price-wise it makes sense that the market neither sells off during the first part of earnings season nor makes a distinctive breakout higher. So instead it may tread in fits of bullishness and bearishness tracing a Minor wave 4 of (C) triangle of some sort (see my 30 minute chart) for a few weeks.

A sideways trending will eventually wear out bears and maintaining of elevated prices will have the effect of creating a level of bullishness and comfort that the bulls would finally get complacent particularly if a Minor wave 5 broke higher above 1080 in November

One thing about a Minor 4 of Intermediate (C) triangle is that it would satisfy the fact that the likely orthodox [e] of 4 would be above the Minor wave 1 price high that the DOW violated recently. That would be more satisfying wave-wise.

Another side note is that the wave "tops" on the up move from the 1019 low seems to be missing little wave 5's on 2 occasions which is strange and makes me believe that its a couple of zigzags up forming a [b] wave.....

But I am thinking out loud here. Take it with a grain of salt as usual.

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