Custom Search

Monday, October 19, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 19 October






All 4 time charts I present align nicely. One more push tomorrow to new high would fulfill my 1 minute "squiggle" chart .

On the 30 minute and daily charts a line would be hit nicely making a trendline with a third hit.

The underlying technicals suggest that a near term top, or indeed a major top is almost ready to be placed if it did not already today.

In this post back here http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2009/10/climbing-wall-of-worry.html I described how the only way the market can experience a meaningful decline is if the "wall of worry" veil is finally lifted. One way I imagined this could work is that the first part of earnings season sets" expectations" and indeed the market rises on the "good news". Then somewhere along the line, "good news" keeps coming yet the market declines and the media and investors in general stay bullish having had their "expectations" for higher prices become this earnings season "paradigm".

In other words the "wall of worry" will have relieved itself.

The VIX made a new low today and I think that is indicative that complacency and lack of fear is back into the market. This could also be evidence that the "wall of worry", after over 7 months of solid rally with nary a 38% pullback, may be starting to abate.

I can easily make a 5 wave move that finished at 1100 today, but again, I'll give the market the benefit of the doubt and assume a final squiggle or so is coming to a new peak.

The 5.5 SPX gap that lies beneath 1080 is a huge target. I don't think it will stay open too much longer.

blog comments powered by Disqus