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Friday, October 2, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 2 October

Today's gap down was indeed covered as I suggested it would. The waves today were countertrend and overlapping. It appears a wave 4 down of some degree is playing out. The low today could have been iii or (iii) is my best guess. I have the 1019 low labeled as iii of (iii) as I suggested last night on my squiggle chart which I didn't alter just yet.

My 5 minute chart shows that Monday weakness would finish off Minuette (iii) to a lower low under 1019. There is an open chart gap at 1016.4 - 1018.67. I have Minuette (iii) low closing this gap to a target somewhere between 1006 and 1014. By then I suspect it will hit the SPX lower rising trendline or a temp slip below.

The VIX closed way outside its BB, but it has yet to close within it which would be a potential temporary bullish setup when it does.

Now if today's 1019 was (iii) low and not subwave iii of (iii), then Monday should continue sideways/upwards action to a Minuette (iv) high price likely somewhere in the 1030's.

So Monday's early direction will be telling.

I am giving the bulls the benefit of the doubt somewhat and by using Fib expansion ratio of 1.618, setting realistic targets such as 1006-1014 for a wave (iii) low depending on what price low you use for Minuette (i). But to be honest, there is more bearish potential if this is indeed a wave 3 of some degree down as we suspect it is. Wave 3's are usually the extended wave in any formation and if this decides to extend farther than a 1.618 ratio, then your looking at sub 1000 next week sometime.

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