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Friday, October 23, 2009

Elliott Wave Update ~ 23 October

Again, nothing definite in the wave structure as far as downward 5 wave moves. So overall I would give the benefit of the doubt for the markets in that they may not have seen their final highs and therefore the market is in corrective mode.

The degree of the corrective mode is up for debate. The best I can figure, for now, is that its a Minute [iv] sideways corrective. I am open for further interpretations but for now I think the view of things is sufficient for the short term (next few days)

There are lots of bearish charts to be sure and bearish technicals and the market has the "feel" as if the bears are fighting the bulls very hard at these levels trying to break key supports.

Yet at the end of the day all three indexes held above breakout support. 9940 on the DOW, roughly 974 -980 on the SPX and 2140 on the NASDAQ. The Nasdaq came with .2o points of making a new high today. Go figure!

So my 30 minute chart shows a possible triangle being formed which is the best interpretation I can conjure at the moment. But we'll know Monday of course. Support must continue to hold for this to be a triangle.

Amazon was a freak today and it could run into the $130's believe it or not if it hits a line that formed over the past 7 years. But that is only based on a line I drew. But sometimes thats all it takes.

You know the saying a kid with a ruler....

Bottom line: even if the market is forming a triangle of some kind, the subsequent move above might be rather short lived. The whole last trading days/weeks seems distributive in nature. And a big P2 rally needs a big distribution time period, as the banks have a zillion shares to unload on the public...
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